But according to unofficial results, Moreno drew almost 51% of Republicans’ statewide primary election vote Tuesday vote compared to the 33% drawn by Dolan and the 17% LaRose gleaned. If there were ever a more clear repudiation of the (nominal) Powers That Be in Ohio GOP politics, it’s hard to recall what that could be.
It seems likely that Trump’s swoop into suburban Dayton three days before Tuesday’s election helped shove Moreno across the finish line even as reputable polling suggested that fellow Greater Clevelander Dolan could be poised to win the nomination to challenge the re-election of Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, of Cleveland.
The irony is that there’s some evidence that Moreno is precisely the challenger that Democrats wanted Brown to face, on the theory that Moreno would be easier for Brown to defeat than Dolan. But many are the voters and bystanders who’ve underestimated Trump’s hold on Ohio’s rank and file Ohio Republican voters.
Notable, incidentally were Moreno’s tallies in Northeast Ohio counties that once were the New Deal’s and organized labor’s bedrock. Compared to his 51% share of the statewide GOP vote, Moreno drew 61% of the Republican primary tally in both Mahoning (Youngstown) and Trumbull (Warren) counties, according to unofficial returns, his highest percentages among Ohio’s 88 counties.
The other dye-marker in Tuesday’s tides were the shifting fortunes of Republican Ohio House Speaker Jason Stephens, of Lawrence County’s Kitts Hill. He was elected speaker in 2023 when he and 21 of his fellow House Republicans (the “Blue 22″) bolted to coalesce with the House’s Democrats to elect Stephens speaker rather than an earlier pick by the House’s GOP caucus, Rep. Derek Merrin, of suburban Toledo.
It appear the pro-Merrion group denied renomination Tuesday to four of the 12 targeted Stephens supporters: Republican state Reps. Sarah Carruthers, of Hamilton; Jon Cross, of Findlay; Brett Hillyer, of Tuscarawas County’s Uhrichsville; and Gail Pavliga, of Portage County’s Atwater.
Coincidentally or not, Senate President Matt Huffman, a Lima Republican, is being term-limited out of the Senate and is running (apparently unopposed) for state representative in the 78th Ohio House District (Allen County, and parts of Auglaize County).
Once in the House, Huffman is expected to challenge Stephens for the speakership, which is why the defeat Tuesday of the four Stephens allies may be significant when the 2025-26 session of the General Assembly opens in January.
Bliss, the legendary Ohio GOP chair, is reputed to have said that a key to winning elections is keeping issues out of campaigns. Today, in Ohio, 2024, Bliss’s maxim seems like a quaint throwback, because “issues,” as in “social issues” will be among the pivots of this year’s statewide Ohio contests. Anyone who thinks otherwise must also think that there really still is a Republican establishment in Ohio – and that it can call the GOP’s shots.
Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. You can reach him at tsuddes@gmail.com.
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