Just connect the dots.
The Trump administration has ended its immigration surge in Minneapolis that saw 3,000 agents descend on the city and two Americans killed by ICE officers. The government has also removed National Guard troops from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland.
Border czar Tom Homan, who took over ICE operations in Minnesota, said the federal government would shift tactics and prioritize arresting and deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, a position supported by nearly all Americans.
A recent poll shows 65% of Americans believe the government’s aggressive immigration tactics, shown on video across social media, have gone too far, and that’s proved politically detrimental. Political analysts, including Republicans, believe the GOP will lose the House and, shockingly, the Senate is also in play.
Pulling back makes sense from a polling and political perspective, even if the MAGA base will detest the policy.
There’s more. The Department of Homeland Security told Gov. Mike DeWine the state would get a 24-hour notice before any possible Springfield surge. I find that astounding. That’s like a police department telling the mayor his office would get a day’s notice before a heroine bust.So much for the element of surprise.
Given all of this — pulling back, focusing on criminals, advanced warning — indicates there won’t be a Minneapolis-type compativeness in Springfield.
Furthermore, I don’t see any way the government can quickly deport tens of thousands of people. That would require a massive law enforcement presence, transportation, and facilities to hold the deportees. That’s not easy.
Besides, the numbers show deporting all 14 million unauthorized United States immigrants is a pipe dream. DHS says more than 600,000 people have been deported under Trump, a figure disputed by advocacy groups. But even at 600K annually, the government can’t deport 14M.
A mass deportation also harms Springfield and Trump. DeWine has long talked about ,the impact losing those workers will have on the city. There are thousands of children with Haitian parents born on American soil and the foster care system can’t take care of them all. Even if it could, it costs taxpayers because you have to pay foster parents.
And this is where politics takes hold. Sure, the MAGA base wants immigrants out, but they account for less than 30% of the population. The immigration surge has galvanized groups, including White suburban moms, who will continue to protest. And when Bruce Springsteen announces a tour that backs “No Kings,” watch out.
Even if court(s), as they should, back Trump’s ability to end TPS, there are several off-ramps that will make everyone mad but also makes pollical sense.
The feds could announce a temporary (of a temporary program) reprieve that allows some immigrants to keep their jobs while also deporting those who have committed a crime or have tried for permanent residency and have been denied.
Look at what happened with the Venezuelans, who had their work authorizations extended until October, even after the Supreme Court ruled DHS could end their TPS.
Republicans don’t want Sen. John Husted or gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy defending administration policy that caused economic harm to a city in their state. Doing so would be a gift to Husted’s opponent, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Amy Acton, who will face Ramaswamy in November.
Despite the demands in some quarters that Haitians leave as soon as the court (favorably) rules, it won’t happen. There are too many moving parts, and more importantly, lots of political implications. Just connect the dots.
Ray Marcano’s column appears on these pages each Sunday.
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