Dayton police Chief Richard Biehl said significant changes in crime levels usually occur because of multiple factors, and it’s still too early to say what might be driving these trends.
“Until we dive into those individual cases and get more information about the nature of the interaction between the individuals and what may be the source ― “the motive” of it ... a lot of those questions are going to be unknown in the short term,” Biehl said.
Some researchers believe the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated some of the conditions underlying violence. Those conditions include poverty, unemployment, hopelessness, loss, isolation and lack of resources.
Through Nov. 9, the Dayton Police Department recorded 463 incidents of gun violence, which is up nearly 13% from the same period in 2019, according to police data.
There have also been 582 reported aggravated assaults ― a 17% increase from last year ― and domestic and intimate partner violence offenses involving a firearm have jumped 46% (44 incidents).
With the except of aggravated assaults, every other Part I violent crime category has seen a major decrease this year. This includes forcible rape (down 37%), homicide (-21%), aggravated robbery (-21%) and robbery (-10%).
Overall, crime has dropped 5% in 2020.
Some types of violent crime, like homicide, increased this summer in cities across the nation during the pandemic and following widespread civil unrest and protests about social justice and police brutality.
However, crime dropped in early and mid-summer, Biehl said.
“Whatever influence the events of late May had, this community did not respond by an escalation of violent crime," he said. “So that says a lot about the character ... of our community.”
But after that, aggravated assaults increased about 20% between August and early November, compared to the same period last year.
There were 203 assaults, which compares to previous three-year average of 151 during the same three-month stretch.
More than half of assaults this year involved a firearm (110), and assaults involving guns are primarily responsible for the growth in this category.
The trend also predates the pandemic: In the last 12 months, aggravated assaults are up about 22%.
Biehl said it is difficult to tell what might explain these increases based on the information currently available.
He promised police will dig deeper into these cases to try to identify patterns and get some answers.
Biehl said some of the violence is conflict between people who have longstanding grievances and hostility toward each other.
Some incidents are drug related, he said, while others stem from domestic problems.
Biehl said it’s possible that during the pandemic residents have had more interactions with people with whom they have a history of conflict.
He said police have received more calls about intimate partner conflicts.
Police calls for mental health issues and attempted suicides have soared, which suggests the pandemic is putting additional stress on the community, Biehl said.
But again, he cautioned, the trends are not easy to explain because the numbers bounced around at different times of the year.
Even without knowing exactly why violent assaults and gun violence are increasing, police still can take intervention measures that hopefully will lead to fewer incidents, Biehl said.
A large number of violent crimes are committed by a small portion of the population, and police will focus resources on getting the most violent offenders off the streets, he said.
Police also focus on crime hotspots and high-incident locations. Aggravated assaults have increased most in the West Patrol Operations Division, and resources will be focused there, Biehl said.
Police are mapping crime incidents to try to prevent short-term patterns from developing into long-term trends, he said.
Some people believe that added stress from the coronavirus pandemic could be contributing to public safety problems.
Violence in the home may increase in frequency and severity as household members, including intimate partners, children, and vulnerable elders, spend more time at home together under high-stress conditions, said Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz, assistant professor and professional researcher with the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California, Davis.
She said there’s also added risk if people have a firearm readily available during any of these high-stress situations.
Some gun control advocacy groups, like Everytown for Gun Safety, claim that increased gun sales and ownership make communities less safe and increase the likelihood of gun violence.
Gun-rights groups strongly dispute these claims.
Gun sales and FBI firearm background checks are soaring in Ohio. Biehl said he’s seen no evidence that increased gun sales are leading to increased gun violence.
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