ELECTION COVERAGE
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It used to happen all the time. Republicans took three separate votes at their 1948 convention in Philadelphia before nominating Thomas Dewey for president, while Democrats in 1920 conducted 44 ballots before settling on former Ohio Gov. James Cox.
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But for the first time since 1976 when President Gerald Ford and challenger Ronald Reagan both had a chance to win the Republican nomination at the convention in Kansas City, a growing number of political analysts suggest the GOP presidential nomination could be decided by a messy floor flight this summer in Cleveland.
“It’s more likely today than it has been in decades and we’ll know better in the middle of February,” said Barry Bennett, former manager of Republican Ben Carson’s presidential campaign. “It’s easy to imagine a scenario where nobody gets to 50 percent of the delegates.”
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Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, estimated a one in five chance of a deadlocked convention, although he added “the fact that we’re even wondering what the chances are rather than dismissing the idea out of hand suggests there is a possibility.”
A return to this relic from another era would transform the Republican convention from a meticulously choreographed TV commercial aimed at showcasing party unity into a four-day brawl pitting tea party populists against more pragmatic conservatives, and producing a weakened nominee for the general election.
Yet even as Republicans fear the possibility of their most divisive convention since 1964 when Barry Goldwater's conservative allies brushed aside more moderate GOP officials, others say the current system where delegates are chosen in the primaries makes a brokered or deadlocked convention remote.
“It’s not impossible, but it’s extremely unlikely,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College in California. “If I had to bet the mortgage, I’d say we’d have a nominee” before delegates gather in Cleveland.
Party leaders used to carry more weight
Prior to 1972, elected officials and party chairs exercised unquestioned power to decide on their nominee. Presidential candidates competed in primaries, such as John F. Kennedy in 1960, only to show the bosses they could appeal to everyday voters.
Governors, such as Republican James A. Rhodes of Ohio in 1968, could control the votes of their delegations by running what were known as favorite-son campaigns, forcing the presidential contenders to negotiate deals with them.
The power held by the bosses meant nominees would be chosen at brokered conventions, often through endless roll calls on the floor, such as 1912 when Democrats took 46 ballots to pick Woodrow Wilson as their nominee.
Hollywood offered a vivid portrayal of the backroom deals in the 1964 film, "The Best Man," in which Henry Fonda portrayed a courtly Adlai Stevenson-like character competing for the nomination against the ruthless Joe Cantwell, played by Cliff Robertson and modeled on a character loosely based on Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
But since 1972, convention delegates have largely been chosen by voters through state primaries and caucuses such as New Hampshire and Iowa, diluting the power of the bosses and usually guaranteeing a single candidate would emerge with more than half of the delegates before the conventions were held.
The Trump effect
What has changed that equation is the meteoric rise of New York billionaire Donald Trump and the populist rhetoric of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas combined with the current weakness in the polls displayed by more pragmatic candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
The tug-of-war between party populists and the establishment raises the possibility of Cruz, Trump, Christie, Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio winning a primary here and a caucus there, making it impossible for one candidate to amass the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination.
“I think it’s going to be more of a marathon than a sprint and I don’t think people are going to quit anytime soon,” said John Feehery, a onetime adviser to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.
Because delegates won by the Republican candidates would only be pledged to support their candidate during the first ballot, if nobody emerges as the nominee, then delegates could turn to someone else.
That has prompted predictions in a hopelessly deadlocked convention, delegates might rally around a compromise possibility who is not even in the race, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., who was Mitt Romney’s 2012 vice presidential running mate.
“That’s a pipe dream,” Feehery said. “If you haven’t announced (for president), you probably are not going to” be the eventual nominee.
As confusing as a deadlocked convention might be for voters and even seasoned politicians, it also could be a nightmare for political reporters, most of whom are not old enough to have covered a tumultuous convention such as the 1964 Republican gathering in San Francisco.
“That really would be exciting,” Rothenberg said. “It also would be chaotic. People would be reporting stuff that didn’t happen, and that would give rise to rumors and lunacy. Editors every 15 minutes would want an update. It would be chaotic, pandemonium and a giant headache.”
Pitney said “for the sake of drama, I would love to see it. But it’s extremely unlikely.”
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