Flagging in the polls and hanging near the bottom rungs of the Republican field, Kasich began throwing haymakers from the start, hoping to make an impression after a low-profile performance in the last debate.
“Gov. Kasich’s poll numbers need to improve,” said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Whether or not his performance in the debate will accomplish, that is to be seen.”
The results were mixed. Kasich got nearly 10 minutes of air time, according to a tally by NPR — far more than billionaire Donald Trump, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Christie and Cruz. But he also got bashed by Trump, who said Kasich got “nasty” after his poll numbers went down, which put him at the far end of the stage.
Trump charged that Kasich served as a “managing general partner at Lehman Brothers when it went down the tubes.” That isn’t true — Kasich was a managing director in a two-person Columbus office — but Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic consultant in Boston, said that after the broadside Kasich “looked shocked and took the beating.”
“As the first person to speak at the debate, he came out swinging and then poof, he was pretty much gone,” said Marsh. “He didn’t do enough in that debate. Who is talking about him today? Nobody. He didn’t do enough in that debate to change the dynamic for him and his position in this race, and certainly not in New Hampshire.”
Kasich’s backers expressed confidence in his performance. Connie Wehrkamp, a former Kasich aide and now spokesman for New Day for America, an independent organization that backs Kasich, said he “did exactly what he needed to do.”
“Many candidates on that stage really struggled, but Gov. Kasich was strong and he looked presidential,” she said. “He doesn’t put up with the pandering and he calls it how he sees it, just like the voters. We feel really good about where things stand.”
Unlike Rubio and Cruz, Kasich’s performance wasn’t universally lauded. But next to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Kasich more than held his own.
Which may be Kasich’s key problem in 2016: He was one of 10 people on the stage. Forced to fight to make an impression, Kasich at times ended up yelling in order to make a point — partly because CNBC moderators struggled to maintain control of an unwieldy crowd on stage.
“If Kasich is going to have a breakout moment, it’s not going to be on a stage with 10 people,” said Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report, who said he would fare better in a smaller forum.
Duffy said Kasich spoke on issues — she said he was more substantive than current front runner Carson — but that substance was lost in a field where 10 candidates struggled to garner attention.
Kasich is not as naturally skilled a debater as Rubio, according to Duffy. But, she said, “he did better than Paul, I think he did better than (former Arkansas Gov. Mike) Huckabee, I think he did better than Bush. I don’t think he did anything wrong.”
It’s Kasich’s performance against Bush, perhaps, that may mean the difference between his campaign moving on or stalling. Kasich entered the race earlier this year poised to take on Bush, then thought to be a front-runner.
But instead, a trio of outsiders — Trump, Carson and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina — have performed ably in the polls. The original Kasich playbook that focused on beating Bush will have to be reworked.
Bush’s poor performance Thursday will take the heat off of Kasich, said Duffy.
“There’s no Kasich death watch right now, but there is certainly a Bush one,” she said, adding that Bush’s poor performance “gives Kasich some breathing room.”
The next debate is roughly two weeks away. But voters won’t begin casting ballots until next year — meaning Kasich has plenty of time to make a move.
Terry Holt, a Republican consultant in Washington and former adviser to Kasich and former House Speaker John Boehner, R-West Chester Twp., compares the debates to “a long set of previews before the main event.”
“For most of the candidates — and Gov. Kasich in particular — showing up, demonstrating your strengths and not making any mistakes are a sufficient outcome for these debates,” he said.
Holt said while Kasich may not be “the first choice today” he “has the credibility, the tone and the edginess to inherit almost anyone else’s voters in the field except in the far right.”
“Kasich is in a strong position to inherit a lot of other people’s voters,” Holt said.
About the Author