Dayton Flyers: Ranking last nine A-10 games by difficulty

Flyers enter second half of conference schedule with one-game lead

Anthony Grant’s wife Chris wants to start a tradition at UD Arena. She’s hoping other fans join her in standing until the the Dayton Flyers score their first basket in games at UD Arena. The UD coach revealed his wife’s plans Monday on the Anthony Grant Show on WHIO Radio.

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“Her and the kids are on a campaign,” Grant said. “I’m probably letting the cat out of the bag, but I think she would like that to be a tradition.”

Should fans choose to join the Grants, they might not have to wait long. No. 6 Dayton (20-2, 9-0) has scored on its first or second possession in seven straight home games.

That offense is the biggest reason the Flyers sit alone in first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference at the halfway point of the 18-game schedule. The offense has been a consistent force all season, rarely going more than a few minutes between points. The defense, however, is what will make the difference for Dayton in the last month of the regular season.

Here's a glance at Dayton's last nine games, ranked by Dayton's chances of winning, according to KenPom.com. The Flyers are favored in each game, but the website gives them a 22.2 percent chance of winning all nine.

1. Feb. 18, at Virginia Commonwealth (64 percent): The Flyers won the first game 79-65 and lead VCU (16-6, 6-3) and four other teams tied for third by three games, so winning this game might not be as important to UD's regular-season championship hopes as everyone thought at the beginning of the season. However, VCU is 4-1 against Dayton at the Siegel Center since joining the conference and has lost only one home game this season.

» HALFWAY DONE: Analyzing A-10 through nine games

2. March 4, at Rhode Island (67 percent): Dayton has won three of its last four games at the Ryan Center. Rhode Island (17-5, 9-1) has emerged as the biggest threat to Dayton. It won its ninth straight game Tuesday, beating Massachusetts 73-67. Fatts Russell leads the A-10 in scoring (20.2 points per game).

3. Tuesday, vs. Rhode Island (86 percent): Before traveling to Kingston, R.I., Dayton plays Rhode Island at home next week. Last season, both teams won on the other's home court. Dayton routed Rhode Island 77-48 on Feb. 2 and then lost 72-70 in overtime on March 1.

Both games against Rhode Island are important for Dayton’s title chances because Rhode Island has an easier schedule ahead. Rhode Island plays five teams ranked among the bottom seven teams in the standings. Dayton has three games that fit that category.

» PHOTOS: Game-by-game recap of UD’s season

4. Feb. 25, at George Mason (89 percent): The Patriots (13-9, 2-7) have lost by double digits five times in A-10 play and have beaten only Massachusetts (9-14, 3-7) and La Salle (10-11, 1-8).

T-5. Saturday, vs. Saint Louis (90 percent): No one played Dayton tougher in the first half of the A-10 schedule than the Billikens, who blew a 13-point lead Jan. 17 in St. Louis and lost 78-76 on a 3-pointer by Jalen Crutcher at the buzzer in overtime. Saint Louis lost its next game, 71-59 at Davidson and has since beaten three of the worst teams in the A-10: Fordham (7-14, 1-8), La Salle and Saint Joseph's (4-18, 1-9).

T-5. Feb. 28, vs. Davidson (90 percent): The Wildcats (11-10, 5-4) have two of the top 11 scorers in the conference — Kellan Grady (16.0) and Jon Axel Gudmundsson (14.3) — but lack depth. They rank 305th in the country in bench minutes. They are 1-3 on the road in A-10 play, and the lone victory came at Fordham.

» MORE COVERAGE: Flyers hope to make most of extended break this week

T-7. Feb. 15, at Massachusetts (92 percent): Dayton crushed UMass 88-60 on Jan. 11 in the first matchup. The Flyers also won big in Amherst a season ago, 72-48. UMass has one good A-10 victory this season. It beat Duquesne 73-64 at the Mullins Center on Jan. 25. It also has one of the worst losses: 85-50 at Davidson on Feb. 1.

T-7. Feb. 22, vs. Duquesne (92 percent): The Flyers won the first game 73-69 in Pittsburgh. The Dukes (16-5, 6-3) are tied for third with VCU, Saint Louis, Richmond and St. Bonaventure.

9. March 7, vs. George Washington (98 percent): The Colonials (10-12, 4-5) have lost eight straight games at UD Arena. This will be Senior Night for Dayton's Ryan Mikesell and Trey Landers. The Flyers have won their last home game in eight straight seasons.


SATURDAY’S GAME

Saint Louis at Dayton, 2 p.m., CBS Sports Network, 1290 and 95.7 WHIO

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