Is there a hiccup looming for the Crimson Tide — even a slight one? A number of significant players could be suiting up for Alabama for the last time, including the players most responsible for the identity of the current team, which is 11-1.
The junior running back Derrick Henry, a leading Heisman Trophy candidate, could declare eligibility in January for the NFL draft. The senior linebacker Reggie Ragland, the leader of a stalwart front seven on defense, will be saying goodbye to the SEC, along with potentially 13-15 other key players.
“It seems like a lot could be leaving because it is spread on both sides of the ball,” said Phil Savage, a former NFL executive who is the chief executive of the Senior Bowl and a color analyst for Alabama radio. “But they have been able to plug in and play, not just because of recruiting, but with player development behind the scenes and impact freshmen.”
There may be an exposed seam because Alabama has been dominant at running back with Henry (1,797 yards and 22 touchdowns) and along the defensive front with ends A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Allen, and those four players have been mentioned prominently in some analyses of the 2016 NFL draft.
“That’s a significant loss when that’s the way the team was built this year,” Savage said of the four players. “Next year’s team will look quite a bit different and play a different style.”
It seems preposterous to think that Saban (97-18) could be rebuilding, not merely reloading, given his track record in recruiting high school talent and developing players for the pros. Still, Alabama could lose 11 on defense and six on offense, including the senior quarterback Jake Coker and the senior center Ryan Kelly.
There already has been turnover on the sideline.
Georgia hired defensive coordinator Kirby Smart to replace Mark Richt on Tuesday night.
Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, who has been a head coach at Tennessee and Southern California, is rumored to be a candidate for various openings.
Offensive line coach Mario Cristobal has been linked to the head coaching opening at his alma mater, Miami.
As for the retooling on the field, Kelly said Alabama had been bringing along its underclassmen throughout the fall.
“It’s been a huge transition for us just to keep getting these young guys prepared,” he said. “You look at it now, there’s a lot of young guys who are playing at a really high level.”
There was a brief downturn for Alabama in 2010, when it lost nine defensive starters from its 2009 national championship team and finished 10-3. But even that 2010 team became difficult for opponents to deal with. Alabama thumped Michigan State 49-7 in the Capital One Bowl. The Crimson Tide came back in 2011 and 2012 with a vengeance, winning back-to-back national titles.
“I know Coach is a great technician about putting things together,” Ragland said of Saban, “and then next year, I know Coach will do a great job of putting the team together and getting the guys he wants to coach on the field.”
For five straight seasons, Alabama has been in the national title discussion until the last weekend of the regular season. It has changed its identity on offense year to year, from a strong running game to a balanced offense to a receiver-led attack and back to a dominant running game. Alabama has stayed true to its identity as a team that excels in all three phases: offense, defense and special teams. Only Ohio State, under Urban Meyer, has matched the consistency.
But if there is going to be a crack, it could be in 2016, when Alabama has to find another starting quarterback, develop another featured running back, retool its defense and discover a new identity. If SEC rivals want to exploit the vulnerability, 2016 might be as wide an opening as they are going to get with Saban in charge.
“We are going to have talent every year,” Kelly said, “but it’s all about developing these guys and to understanding the playbook.”
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