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UD and VCU have a two-game lead over Richmond (9-4) and a three-game lead over three teams tied for fourth at 8-5: George Mason, Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure.
Barring more upsets in the next two weeks, the A-10 is a two-team race. Here’s how the final stretch looks for Dayton and VCU.
• Dayton plays home games vs. St. Bonaventure (Saturday), George Mason (Tuesday) and VCU (March 1) and plays at Davidson (Feb. 24) and George Washington (March 4). The teams’ combined A-10 record is 38-27. According to KenPom.com, Dayton has at least a 60 percent chance of winning each of its remaining games.
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• VCU has the tougher road with three of its last five games on the road. It plays at Richmond (Friday), at Rhode Island (Feb. 25) and at Dayton. It has home games against Saint Louis (Feb. 22) and George Mason (March 4). The teams have a combined record of 40-25. VCU is favored in three of its remaining games, according to KenPom, but has a 41 percent chance of beating Rhode Island and a 31 percent chance of winning at UD.
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