Don’t chalk it up to satisfaction with Congress, which remains as unpopular as ever. The incumbents all have vast sums of money to run with and something else that’s hugely beneficial: congressional districts that are basically safer than a bomb shelter.
Redrawing congressional districts occurs every 10 years to reflect census changes, and whichever party controls the Ohio General Assembly can call the shots on the map. In 2012, as now, Republicans controlled the legislature and they carved out maps that were essentially bullet-proof — for both parties.
Four Democratic districts were made solidly Democratic, which limited the number of Democrats in the remaining 12 districts, which are all packed with Republicans. As evidence of how good a job they did, Republicans in 2012 received 52 percent of the votes cast in Ohio’s congressional elections, yet won 75 percent of the seats. In 2014, not a single congressional contest was close, with every incumbent receiving at least 58 percent of the vote.
Richard Gunther, a professor emeritus at Ohio State University, said Ohio is special when it comes to drawing congressional maps: His research indicates it is the “third worst gerrymandered place on the planet.”
“Only Pennsylvania and Virginia have worse maps than we do,” he said.
Gunther scores states and countries on a variety of criteria. On “electoral disproportionality” — the difference between the percentage of the seats won by a party and the percentage of votes cast for that party’s candidates — Ohio’s 2012 congressional map received a score of 23.
The lower the score the more proportional the districts are drawn, which means Ohio’s maps are less proportional than — get this — Russia. Vladimir Putin’s Russia scored a seven on Gunther’s electoral disproportionality scale, a far better score than Ohio.
Ohio isn’t alone in protecting incumbents. Wasserman suggests there are just 37 races nationwide — of 435 congressional districts — that are competitive, and the number of true tossup races is even smaller.
The Cook Political Report lists 16 tossups — races that could go either way — and 21 others that have a slight lean toward one party or the other. To swing control of the House Democrats would need a gain of 30 seats.
None of Ohio’s seats are likely to change hands. Not only were the state’s odd-shaped districts drawn to prevent that from happening, but the incumbents are all sitting on stockpiles of campaign cash should they need it.
As of Sept. 30, incumbents had a combined $17.5 million on hand compared to $200,000 for their challengers. Put another way, for every dollar the challengers have to spend, the incumbents have $87.50.
Take Rep. Joyce Beatty, for example. Beatty is a Dayton native seeking her third term in a Columbus area district that heavily favors Democrats. She had $811,646 on hand as of Sept. 30 while her Republican opponent, John Adams, had yet to raise or spend the $5,000 required to file a report with the Federal Election Commission.
Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Troy, the newest member of the state’s congressional delegation, didn’t take long to accumulate a daunting campaign chest. His opponent, Democrat Steve Fought, a former aide to Rep. Marcy Kaptur, had $136 on hand as of Sept. 30. Davidson, who was elected earlier this year to fill former Speaker John Boehner’s 8th District seat, had $130,109.
The situation is much the same in the state’s 10th District, which includes all or parts of Montgomery, Greene and Fayette counties. Rep. Mike Turner, the former Dayton mayor, had $377,592 on hand as of Sept. 30. Democrat Robert Klepinger and Independent Tom McMasters, his two opponents, did not list having any money on hand to face Turner, who has held the seat since 2001.
Two other area members of Congress — Reps. Jim Jordan of Urbana and Rep. Steve Chabot of Cincinnati — each have more than $1 million in their campaign fund, easily dwarfing the meager sums raised by their opponents.
Jordan, a leader of the conservative Freedom Caucus, reported $1.26 million in the bank as of Sept. 30, while his opponent, Democrat Janet Garrett had $30,173.
Chabot had $1.1. million in his campaign account compared to $68, 902 for his Democratic opponent, Michele Young.
Gerrymandering is not exactly a secret, and the list of those who have called to end the practice include prominent Republicans such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Secretary of State Jon Husted.
So what’s the holdup?
Gunther said it’s the legislature, which is loath to give up the power to draw the districts. Bills exist in the House and Senate, but Gunther doesn’t expect them to go anywhere.
“If you had a congressional seat and no term limits, if you’re in a safe seat, you have a job for life,” he said. “You can understand why elected members resist reform that would actually subject them to real compromise.”
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