Mack stated his case in a pre-tournament press conference at Xavier, saying that history was on his side in terms of how the selection committee has made its decisions on “bubble teams” in the past, favoring programs like Xavier with strong RPI and strength of schedule ratings.
However, Xavier didn’t leave its postseason fate to chance. XU parlayed a regular-season finale win into two victories in three good games at the Big East Tournament to move from “bubble team” to “lock” on most bracketology boards.
Three wins later, the Musketeers (24-13) are showing they truly belong.
Xavier, the 11th seed, will face top-seed Gonzaga (35-1) in the West Regional final at 6:09 p.m. on Saturday. It’s the third Elite Eight appearance for the Musketeers.
Here are five things to know about Xavier:
1. Musketeers are battle-tested
As Mack was trying to point out in his press conference (and sounded like a sales pitch to the selection committee), the Musketeers’ résumé is stronger than it appears because of the competition they faced this season.
Going into the Big East Tournament, they had 19 wins, an RPI of 34, a KenPom.com rating of 43 and their strength of schedule was 11th best in the country. Of the four Big East “bubble teams,” they were first or second in six of the major power numbers used to rate teams. None of their 12 regular-season losses were to teams outside the KenPom Top 75, and their average opponent RPI (87) ranked fifth nationally.
“We challenged our team from Day One,” Mack said. “We have one of the best non-conference schedules in the country at 20. Our total strength of schedule is 11. Our team’s been challenged since November.”
Xavier knocked off a No. 6 seed (Maryland), No. 3 (Florida State) and No. 2 (Arizona) to reach the Elite Eight.
2. Adjusting without Sumner
The biggest question surrounding Xavier is what kind of team it is without Edmond Sumner, who averaged 15.0 points per game but suffered a season-ending knee injury in a win against St. John’s on Jan. 29.
While losing a standout point guard was an adjustment, Mack would argue the team has overcome that and was actually more impacted by the brief absence of All-Big East first-teamer Trevon Bluiett, who went down in a loss to Villanova on Feb. 11
The Musketeers responded well without Sumner at first, winning their next three outings behind new point guard Quentin Goodin, but then hit a rough patch when Bluiett went down and missed two-plus games at the start of a six-game losing streak. Xavier was 4-3 in games without Sumner but with a fully healthy Bluiett at the close of the regular season.
“We relied on Edmond heavily in a lot of areas,” Mack said. “Where it’s been a challenge is just in the number of players we have. It’s been unique for our team, guys that have played 30-35-40 minutes in some cases, but I’m happy with the progress that our team has made. It was a little choppy when Trevon goes out.”
3. Overcoming adversity
The injuries to Sumner and Bluiett were just a portion of the personnel losses Xavier has experienced this season.
Earlier in the year, the Musketeers were faced with questions of when suspended Myles Davis would return and once he did, it didn’t last. Three games into his return, he decided to leave the team.
Mack said during his team’s six-game skid that his team wasn’t handling adversity well but heading into the postseason he was hopeful his players had learned from their struggles.
“We haven’t had much of a resiliency all year,” Mack said. “When teams punch us in the mouth, we just sort of keep getting punched. That hasn’t been the character of teams that I’ve coached in the past. This one’s been dealt some weird adversity throughout the year. We haven’t handled it very well - runs that the other team makes, responses that we need to make.”
4. Trouble lies in turnovers, porous defense
Xavier’s struggles can be pinned to turnovers and inconsistency on defense.
The Musketeers, who are low on guards, averaged 12.7 turnovers per game during the regular season, ranking 134th nationally and sixth in the Big East, and are 10-0 in games in which they had 10 turnovers or fewer. In their last regular-season loss, Marquette scored an eye-popping 25 points off 14 turnovers.
“I think our team has learned if we don’t take care of the basketball, it’s a real problem for us, and we’re hoping to be much better with that,” Mack said.
During the six-game skid, Xavier allowed an average of 80.1 points per game. The Musketeers allowed 71.9 points per game for the regular-season, ranking fifth in the Big East and 164th nationally.
5. When at its best …
The best version of Xavier consists of strong rebounding, better ball-handling and a hot-shooting Bluiett, combined with scoring from other parts of the floor.
Bluiett leads the team in almost every shooting category, averaging 18.0 points per game during the regular-season and shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range with 75 makes on 198 attempts. He has 15 games with 20 points or more, but even his season-high 40 points against Cincinnati resulted in a loss. Xavier does best when others are stepping up as well. J.P. Macura averages 14.5 points per game, but the other three starters bring in 6.3 points per game or less.
Xavier’s success often also revolves around its rebounding ability. The Musketeers lead the Big East and are No. 18 nationally in rebound margin at plus-7.0 per game.
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