Elwell: Hot as a firecracker - the year’s hottest temperatures begin

It is the Fourth of July - and we are now in the hottest part of the year for the Miami Valley, at least on average. The warmest average temperature for Dayton is 84 degrees. We typically average this temperature between July 1-27, after the 27th, the average high temperature begins to drop until late January.

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Despite the cool start and rainy month of June, the month turned out to be exactly normal as far as temperatures. The average high for the month of June is 70.6 degrees. While much of the month was below average temperature-wise. A mid-month brief heat-wave pushed temperatures above the 90-degree mark for the first time this year, which helped skew our average to normal for the month.

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You might guess, we did quite a bit better than average on rainfall thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy that crossed the Miami Valley on June 23. For the month, we had a sopping 7.43 inches of rain which was 3.24 inches above normal.

The Miami Valley has seen a wide variety of weather on the Fourth of July. According to data released by the National Weather Service in Wilmington, the hottest Fourth of July occurred in 1897 when the mercury soared to a whopping 104 degrees. The chilliest was only nine years ago, in 2008 when the high only reached 66 degrees. This year looks to be a fairly average holiday with near normal temperatures and a chance for a passing shower or storm.

As far as the rest of the month, the long-range models suggest a brief cool-down this weekend followed by near or above average temperatures developing for next week into the middle of the month. Precipitation is also looking to stay near typical norms although we will have to keep our eye on the tropics over the coming days and weeks. Some of the long-range models show an uptick in tropical activity is possible as ocean water temperatures continue to rise in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Warm ocean water, typically above 80 degrees, is needed fuel for tropical systems to form.

But for now, enjoy the break from any extreme heat and be on the look-out for Mother Nature’s own fireworks tonight and the next couple of evenings.

Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

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