The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants and the University of Cincinnati Economics Center found the state is likely to see a 1.54 percent increase in holiday retail spending. That amount is slowing due to online and mobile spending, instead of brick-and-mortar sales.
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In 2015, holiday sales resulted in more than $21 billion in revenue throughout the state.
Ohio’s forecast is also lower than national forecasts. Economic indicators show stability in Ohio but not a substantial amount of growth over the past few years, said Jennifer Shand, senior research associate for the UC Economics Center.
According to the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to reach more than $655 billion nationwide, a 3.6 percent increase from last year.
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In Dayton, holiday spending will increase by about 1.7 percent. Out of smaller metropolitan areas in the state, Dayton had the second slowest rate of growth out of Lima, Mansfield, Youngstown, Toledo, Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus. Toledo had the slowest growth, with an expected increase of 0.5 percent in holiday spending.
Dayton is expected to bring in a little under $1.6 billion this year in holiday sales. Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus account for the majority — about 54 percent — of the estimated holiday sales. Shand said Ohio retail sales could be influenced by national trends shifting consumer preferences toward mobile and online sales.
“Mobile and online sales continue to grow as well, as consumers enjoy the competition for their dollars shown in more price, product and service options,” she said.
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Ohio’s retail industry accounts for $26.5 billion of Ohio’s annual Gross Domestic Product, according to Gordon Gough, the president and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants. Retail supports 1.5 million jobs — 1 in 4 of all Ohio jobs. That’s more than any other industry, he said.
“While the forecast shows the continued importance of the retail industry in Ohioans’ lives this holiday season, we should also recognize the economic value of retail to our overall economy,” Gough said.
According to the forecast, employment has shown steady gains, but total wages and salaries have been declining recently. Nationwide, retailers are expected to hire between 640,000 and 690,000 seasonal workers this holiday season. Last year, more than 675,000 new holiday positions were filled.
Much of the future of holiday retail will be dependent on mobile and online shopping. A slow in state spending can likely be attributed to more people shopping on websites and online retailers that can’t be tied to a certain state.
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Gordon Gough, the president and CEO of the Ohio Council for Retail Merchants, told the Dayton Daily News that retailers have to respond “very quickly” to the ever-changing demand of consumer trends.
“It’s just part of the omnichannel of retail,” he said.
Ashley Phillips, store manager of the Walmart on Kingsridge Avenue in Miami Twp., said online shopping hasn’t necessarily hurt business — it just gives customers another way to buy their products.
“You’re still going to have those hardcore Black Friday shoppers,” Phillips said.
According to the forecast, the growth of online sales is substantial. The National Retail Federation estimated a 10-percent increase in non-store sales this year. A study from Adobe showed online sales could hit about $92 billion nationwide.
Do you plan on shopping during the Black Friday weekend? Tell reporter Kara Driscoll about your plans. Call her at 937-225-0551.
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