5 reasons Trump will win
1. His angry campaign. Last week, Trump appeared in an ad that tried to soften his image. He then repeated the pet-eating Haitians lie and called Kamala Harris “mentally impaired.” With each verbal bomb, his crowds cheered louder. His detractors will claim that a campaign of grievance simply divides us more. That’s what Trump’s counting on.
2. He’s a known commodity. His opponents believe Trump’s a self-indulgent wanna-be dictator who will destroy democracy. That rhetoric overlooks the policies conservatives love. He’s also cut taxes for the rich, appointed justices for what is now the most conservative U.S. Supreme Court in 90 years, and says he’ll push for mass deportation of undocumented workers, and those are all winning issues for him.
3. He projects strength. He does so differently — by predicting cataclysmic events in which he is the only savior. He says we’re headed for WWIII, a Great Depression, and the end of the country if Harris wins. But a vote for Trump means prosperity and peace, which only he can provide due to his sheer force of will. People love that, and leads to …
4. An explosive Middle East. That projection of strength and bluster burnishes his strongman image that can stop overseas wars while protecting Americans.
5. His cronies. Team Trump has done a terrific job (and I mean that) putting loyalists in important positions in hopes of tipping the election his way. In one example, the Board of Election in Georgia ordered hand-counting ballots, which could lead to charges of fraud based on alleged ballot problems. That’s important in a state where Trump lost by just 11,779 votes.
5 reasons Harris will win
1. The GOP’s self-inflicted wounds: Mark Robinson, North Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial candidate, is down by high double digits, and recent revelations of his alleged extracurricular activities (visiting porn chat rooms) means he’s toast. The (unreliable) public polling shows Harris and Trump neck and neck. But Robinson’s down so much that he’ll be a drag on the ticket as Democrats slam him every chance they get. That’s good for Harris, which also means ….
2. Winning NC provides more paths to victory. Harris seems to be opening a lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan with Wisconsin a tossup. So she can lose WI and get the WH by winning PA and NC, or WI and NC, or other combinations. That’s a good position to be in.
3. She’s not Trump. This is what she’s banking on most. She hopes slogans like “joy” and “we’re not going back” will resonate with enough Never Trumpers to pave the way to the WH.
4. Economic good news: The Feds cut interest rates in September, sending more home buyers into the market. The jobless rate has held steady. And swing states are economically outperforming the U.S. as a whole. Presidents have little impact on the economy (good or bad), and vice presidents even less. But any good news helps the party in charge.
5. She comes out of her cocoon. This race is close because Trump voters love him, and Harris hasn’t done much to convince people that she’s a better alternative. Doing interviews with Oprah and social media influencers is nice but doesn’t cut it. She needs to show voters an unscripted Harris can think on her feet. (A Town Hall maybe? In Dayton?)
Who’s winning as of today? At this point, Trump is still ahead by the slimmest of margins. Given all the uncertainty, that could change overnight.
Ray Marcano’s column appears on these pages each Sunday.
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