If Trump has the oomph he had when Ohioans twice supported him for president (51.3% of Ohio’s vote in 2016, 52.3% in 2020), Vance should be in like Flynn.
Trouble is, besides Vance, at least two other Senate candidates are (at this writing) also leading the GOP’s Senate pack: Entrepreneur Mike Gibbons and ex-State Treasurer Josh Mandel, both Greater Clevelanders. It appears there’s nothing Gibbs won’t spend, and Mandel won’t say, to land the Senate nomination. Meanwhile, Vance is busy eating the nasty words he once used to describe Trump. There’s no truer believer than a convert.
Also seeking the Senate nomination are state Sen. Matt Dolan, of suburban Cleveland, chair of the state Senate’s budget-writing Finance Committee, who usually seems to be the only adult in the room; former Republican State Chair Jane Timken, of Canton, whom Portman supports; and Delaware countians Neil Patel and Mark Pukita, who are businesspeople. Ohio Democrats’ likely Senate nominee will be U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, of suburban Warren.
If Trump has backed the right horse, then Ohio’s GOP insiders will kowtow even more than they do now to the former president. But if Trump placed a bad bet, Ohio Republicans will inch away.
Democrats have from time-to-time unseated Republican senators – then-Sen. Mike DeWine in 2006, bested by Democrat Sherrod Brown – but they’ve been less successful in capturing so-called open seats (when a Senate incumbent isn’t on the ballot.).
Here’s a second big question: Will now-Gov. DeWine draw at least 50% of the GOP gubernatorial primary vote, bolstering him (or not) to face either of two Democratic ex-mayors – Dayton’s Nan Whaley or Cincinnati’s John Cranley– in November? (At this writing, the Cranley-Whaley contest is said to be close.)
Four years ago, in a primary contest with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, DeWine drew 59.8% of the GOP vote to Taylor’s 40.2%. This time around, DeWine has three foes in the race for the Republican nomination: Former U.S. Jim Renacci, of Wadsworth; former state Rep. Ron Hood, of Pickaway County’s Ashville, and Canal Winchester farmer Joe Blystone.
It’s hard to believe, but the intra-GOP rap in DeWine is that he’s not conservative enough. To some people on the right, to succeed – which DeWine did as to COVID-19 – evidently is to fail. That DeWine is 100% anti-abortion also seems to count for little among his GOP critics. Still, given the anti-DeWine current among some Ohio Republicans, that makes Renacci the natural beneficiary of anti-DeWine protest votes.
Given that this year’s gubernatorial campaign is likely DeWine’s last primary contest, whether he garners 50% or less of the GOP primary is less important than whether he garners a plurality (the most votes cast) – which DeWine will, thus winning the GOP’s nomination.
But an underwhelming showing in the GOP primary would, at the very least, energize the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, whether that person is Cincinnatian John Cranley or Daytonian Nan Whaley. Unseating an incumbent Republican governor in Ohio isn’t easy; Democrats last did it in 1958.
But if Republicans are divided, it can happen – as GOP insiders well know. They also know that if Donald Trump picked the wrong horse in Ohio’s Republican senatorial primary, that will shake up politics in Ohio – and, maybe, nationally.
Thomas Suddes is an adjunct assistant professor at Ohio University. He covered the Statehouse for The (Cleveland) Plain Dealer for many years.
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