A snow day bust? Why so many didn’t get snow overnight

There is value in honesty, transparency and in-depth analysis after it snows. many in the region today are wondering, where’s the snow that was forecast?

This weather system was one of those setups where we were on the edge of getting snow or rainfall. It’s a forecaster’s nightmare because small adjustments in the track of the low pressure system can make or break us getting snowfall. And too often, this is the case with winter systems in this area.

Meteorologists had high confidence on Tuesday that our northwestern spots would get measurable snowfall and have lingering issues on the roads for the morning drive. That is exactly what locals woke up to this morning. Check out some of the snow totals:

4.0″ Milan, IN

4.0″ Sumnan, IN

3.0″ Oxford, OH

3.0″ Somerville, OH

2.5″ Batesville, IN

2.0-4.0″ for Dayton and surrounding areas

2.0″ Liberty, IN

1.9″ Groesbeck, OH

1.5″ Mason, OH

1.2″ Hamilton, OH

1.0″ Harveysburg, OH

1.0″ Maineville, OH

0.9″ Wilmington, OH

0.8″ Alpine, IN

0.5″ Loveland, OH

But what happened to the east and south? Warm air. We knew this was a possibility.

And this isn’t a meteorologist trying to say “gotcha” or anything to that effect. We know it’s frustrating when we call for 2-3″ inches of snowfall and you get nothing. Schools cancelled, schools delayed, people adjusted their plans or cancelled travel.

This system was definitely one of those that came down to a 30-50 mile shift in the track of the low pressure system. And when you think about scale of these weather systems, it’s a really small change. But when that shift is right over your town, it can make or break a snowy day and make it a rainy day instead.

About the Author