The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants will release statewide and regional projections of holiday sales on Nov. 23, according to Gordon Gough, the council’s president and CEO. Gough said this morning that Ohio’s holiday sales in recent years have matched or slightly exceeded the national rate of growth, in part because Ohio’s economy has rebounded faster than many other regions in the country.
If the NRF’s national projections are accurate, they would mark the first slowdown in the rate of spending growth since 2011 when holiday sales were up 4.6 percent, down from 5.2 percent in 2010. During that time, retailers were not only hurt by high unemployment but a mild winter that forced stores to heavily discount coats, sweaters and other cold-weather items more than expected.
The dollar figure excludes sales from autos, gas and restaurants but includes online spending. The group estimates that online spending should be up 6 percent to 8 percent for the two-month period to as much as $105 billion. That would be in line with the 5.8 percent increase over last year’s holiday season.
Still, the holiday sales estimate is much higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. But the growth has been choppy since the deep downturn of 2008 when holiday sales fell 4.6 percent from the previous year.
“While economic indicators have improved in several areas, Americans remain somewhat torn between their desire and their ability to spend,” Matthew Shay, CEO and president of the Washington, D.C.-based National Retail Federation, said in a release. “The fact remains consumers still have the weight of the economy on their minds, further explaining the complex retail spending environment we are seeing right now.”
The estimate is a barometer for retailers that depend on the last two months of the year, which on average, account for nearly 20 percent of annual retail industry sales. The figure also offers some insight into the mindset of the consumers, whose spending accounts for up to 70 percent of economic activity.
• This story contains material from the Associated Press.
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