Under the current districts, U.S. Reps. Mike Turner, R-Centerville, Steve Austria, R-Beavercreek, and Speaker John Boehner, R-West Chester, have districts that at least touch Wright-Patt. Under the congressional map that passed the Ohio House Thursday, just two districts can lay claim to the sprawling base that overlaps the Greene and Montgomery counties line.
“Is it better to have a football team with three players or one with two players on it?” asked Phil Parker of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce. “I say it’s better to have an extra one on it.”
Wright-Patterson officials estimate the annual economic impact of the base, including contracts, payroll and purchasing, at $5 billion. The base and the defense and aerospace industry that feeds off of it have long relied on people like former U.S. Rep. Dave Hobson, R-Springfield, to keep a watchful eye on money flowing into the Miami Valley.
The new plan will give Boehner more of Montgomery County — and more of the base — but pits Austria and Turner in a primary against one another. That gives the base one fewer lawmaker with a direct stake in Wright-Patterson’s fate.
Of the five Ohio House Republicans who voted against the bill creating the new map, one of them — Rep. Jarrod Martin, R-Beavercreek — did so specifically because the plan puts Turner and Austria in the same district.
“They both do a good job,” Martin said. “I don’t think anybody wanted a primary.”
Bruising primary expected
Ohio loses two congressional seats because of changes in population since the 2000 Census. The other incumbent primary battle could pit Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland.
The Turner-Austria primary is likely to be a bruising affair. Both men said last week they plan to run, and both have indicated they are the better choice in the new 10th district, which includes part of Montgomery and Fairfield counties, and all of Greene, Fayette, and Pickaway counties.
The new map will no doubt start the campaign in earnest: As of June 30, Turner had cash on hand of $200,763, while Austria reported having $316,340.
The Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting, a coalition of groups advocating for more competitive districts, gave the new 10th district a GOP partisan index of 57.85 percent, meaning only about 42 percent of the votes in recent elections came from Democrats.
But while the district is the Republicans to lose, there is no clear favorite in a matchup between Turner and Austria. Of the five counties, four are currently in Austria’s district. However, the biggest batch of voters is still in Montgomery County, and Turner has always done well in his home county.
No earmarks
In the new era in Washington, where earmarks are banned and use of federal money often frowned on, some worry that Wright-Patterson is vulnerable — not only to budget cuts but to a loss of jobs.
“Other states and other delegations relish stealing all the stuff at Wright-Patterson,’’ one Ohio Republican muttered last week.
Under the new plan, the nation’s top Republican — Speaker Boehner — represents the base, but he has long been hesitant to use his clout to funnel money for projects in his district.
Boehner, for example, has been an ardent opponent of earmarks, which in the past were dropped into spending bills by lawmakers to build projects back in their states.
Wright-Patterson has a bigger footprint in a redrawn Boehner district, but nobody is too sure what that might mean. And with either Turner or Austria knocking the other off, Wright-Patt could easily lose some of its backing in Congress. Turner is a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, while Austria, has a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, which has the power to decide where federal dollars are spent.
“However you add the numbers up, you lose one, and you lose some impact,” Parker said.
Former Rep. Tony Hall, D-Dayton, put it more bluntly. A member of Congress from 1979 to 2002, Hall said the new district is so far-flung, swinging east of even Columbus, it can no longer be described as a Dayton-area district.
“It’s a stupid map,” he said.
Parker said the region may have to “expand its footprint” and bring in some of the new counties in the new district.
“It does give an opportunity for us to open up some relationships with others,” he said.
‘A very different kind of map’
The new map, which goes before the Ohio Senate this week, carves up traditionally metropolitan areas across the state into multiple districts, creating some odd shapes.
GOP mapmakers say that was unavoidable because each of the 16 districts had to be equal in population. But critics say the Republicans who controlled the process wanted to create safe districts that would ensure a GOP majority for at least a decade. Of the 16 districts, the Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting found just two that were even remotely competitive.
Some of the strangest shapes occurred in the central and northern parts of the state. Under the new map, Summit County will be part of four different congressional districts. Former U.S. Rep. Dennis Eckart of Cleveland said they made “mincemeat” out of that county. “The biggest victim here is the Akron area,” he said.
The mapmakers also made some incumbents less vulnerable. Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington, is a prime example. His new district would represent a broad, reverse C-shaped swath of Ohio that would include all or parts of Clark County, Franklin County, Highland County and then veer east to the Appalachian counties of Vinton, Athens and Hocking. In all, he would represent all or parts of 13 counties, including the suburbs of Columbus and a chunk of the Miami Valley.
The Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting gave his new district a GOP partisan index of 57.47 percent. In November, Stivers received 54.16 percent of the vote in his current district, knocking off Democratic incumbent Mary Jo Kilroy.
“You can’t say, ‘there’s an Akron district.’ You can’t say, ‘there’s a Cleveland district,’” said John Green of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. “Historically, congressional districts were built around metropolitan areas or rural areas because of the idea that districts should represent communities ... this is a very different kind of map.”
Metropolitan areas weren’t the only ones carved up. In the new map rural Mercer County, population 40,814, is divided between three Republican congressmen: Boehner, Jim Jordan, R-Urbana, and Bob Latta, R-Bowling Green.
“I guess the line has got to get drawn somewhere,” said Matt Gilmore, the chair of the Mercer County Republican Party.
Lost influence?
What the new map means for voters in 2012: more political ads on TV from a dizzying array of congressmen all trying to get known in the multiple media markets they now represent.
What it means for lawmakers: Potential primary challenges, easy general elections and pricier campaigns as they scoop up TV time in those multiple media markets, said Stu Rothenberg of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, D.C.
But beyond that, it’s unknown how the state’s overall influence will ebb or flow in the coming decade. Just five years ago, Ohio had two powerful Appropriations Subcommittee chairmen and a House Minority Leader.
Now, they can claim the House speaker, but the delegation is younger and less experienced — and soon to be two fewer.
With states competing against each other for jobs, the loss of political clout could lead to other losses, some fear.
“There’s no question that when you lose two seats in the House you lose impact and lose your ability to do things on behalf of your state,’’ said David Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “The fact Boehner is speaker mutes part of that, but that isn’t going to last forever.’’
Staff Writer John Nolan contributed to this story.
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