Two years ago, the average price per gallon was $3.59.
Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, expects the price of gas in the region to be in the $2.50 range through Labor Day, with some fluctuations.
“The summertime peak (in southwest Ohio) will be lower this year,” DeHaan said. “The summer average from Memorial Day to Labor Day will be maybe 15-to-30 cents lower (than 2015), but we do have some more upward climbs at the pump that we’ll see before Memorial Day.”
Ohio likely has already seen its lowest gas prices of the year. The average price in the region in early February was $1.40.
DeHaan expects lower prices in the region early in the summer.
“June should see lower prices than May,” he said. “That looks like a good month because refinery maintenance is usually wrapping up in late May and the supply of gasoline starts rising. And it’s before the bulk of hurricane season.”
Monthly average prices nationally are expected to be $2.08 in June before falling to $1.93 in September. For the calendar year of 2016, the EIA predicts an average price of $1.94 per gallon nationally. That means the average household will spend $350 less on gasoline than in 2015, and about $1,000 less than in 2014.
But a decline in oil production could make savings temporary.
“The (Energy Information Administration) is a little more optimistic than I am,” DeHaan said. “Today for the first time in perhaps a few years, U.S. domestic oil production fell under 9 million barrels a day. So oil production is starting to decelerate quickly because of low oil prices.
“Coupled with the cheapest gas prices in Ohio in perhaps the last decade, it’s a recipe that oil supply could be absorbed very quickly by Americans this summer. I’m more pessimistic that next year we’ll probably see an increase from 10-to-30 cents higher (than the national average).”
DeHaan pointed to last year’s crazy price swings as an example of the volatility in the Midwest, which he said is tied to prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
“The regional supply of gasoline was through the roof (earlier this year) and that’s how it got so low,” DeHaan said. “Just as quickly this summer there could be a regional problem that would affect only the Great Lakes.
“Just remember what happened last August when BP went down unexpectedly and prices shot up 80 cents a gallon overnight.”
Another variable is OPEC, which is meeting Sunday in Qatar to discuss production issues.
“A potential freeze in production could cause prices to increase temporarily, though it is difficult to see how it will reduce the market’s extreme oversupply,” said a news release by AAA.
The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the state of Ohio on Wednesday was $2.12, according to GasBuddy.com. The website listed the cheapest gas in the state in Hamilton, the highest in Medina.
The Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook estimates a 2.3 percent increase in summer highway travel, and predicts that wholesale gas prices will rise slightly in the second half of 2017.
State and federal gas taxes, which vary by state, also affect gas prices. Ohio has the nation’s 26th-highest gas tax at 46.4 cents per gallon. That’s slightly lower than the U.S. average of 48.03 cents.
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