What does Trump victory mean for the Dayton region?

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

Donald Trump campaigned on expanding the armed forces.

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

The election of Donald J. Trump as the next president of the United States will have a big impact on this region in the coming years if the president-elect makes goods on his promises.

Here are a few things that will impact the Dayton region:

Ohio is home to some 63,500 military jobs, including more than 26,000 at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, the state's largest single site employer.

“The Ohio defense facilities alone contribute about $11 billion overall to the state of Ohio and each of these facilities is responsible for managing much more,” U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton, and a House Armed Services Committee member has said. “So, our opportunity to grow our impact in this state is significant.”

Trump has pledged to rebuild America’s military, which he has characterized during the campaign as depleted and a “disaster.” During the Commander in Chief forum last month, Trump claimed that under President Obama and former Secretary of State Clinton’s leadership “the generals have been reduced to rubble. They have been reduced to the point that’s embarrassing for our country.” His campaign has called Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and Springfield Air National Guard Base “essential contributors” to national defense.

In a speech to the national convention of the American Legion in Cincinnati, Trump called for reforms to the VA that will allow veterans to opt for care from a private doctor or clinic. “The veterans health system will remain a public system, because it is a public trust. But never again will we allow any veteran to suffer or die waiting for care.”

Trump’s first commitment militarily is the destruction of ISIS. He said he would have his military produce a plan within 30 days. It would involve military action, cyber, financial, ideological and diplomatic efforts to focus on the destruction of ISIS.

The Dayton region includes a number of companies that must compete against companies from foreign countries, namely the steel industry and manufacturing. This could help companies like AK Steel in West Chester Twp., which employs more than 2,000 at its steel mill in Middletown.

Trump has said he wants to declare China a currency manipulator because of its past efforts to push down the value of the yuan, bolstering its exports at the expense of U.S. shipments to China. Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of 45 percent on Chinese imports and 35 percent on Mexican products, and opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal with Pacific Rim countries.

Trump’ said he wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., but experts have said it’s unlikely companies will play ball given the uncertainty of how long the tariffs would remain in place.

Steve Staub, 47, co-owner, Staub Manufacturing Solutions, told this media outlet that Trump offers a “common sense approach” to unfair trade policies that have cost the U.S. manufacturing jobs.

The Dayton region has over 2,570 manufacturing companies that employ over 112,500 hard-working men and women with an annual payroll of $5.6 Billion.

“There’s a lot of common sense answers and I’m convinced like many others that there’s not a lot of common sense in Washington. D.C. anymore,” Staub said.

“Every day we’re just trying to compete and stay alive fighting foreign competition,” he added.

Trump has said he will quickly work with Congress to "repeal Obamacare." This type of action could have an impact on a company like CareSource, which is the largest private company in downtown Dayton.

Over the past five years, company-wide employment at CareSource has grown from 1,200 to 3,100 in four states — including 860 new employees added in the past year alone — while membership in its health plans has grown to more than 1.5 million.

Much of the company’s growth can be attributed to its roll-out of private health plans through federal Health Insurance Marketplaces under the Affordable Care Act, and the expansion of Medicaid in Ohio in 2014.

Immigration was the defining and most polarizing issue in the presidential campaign. Trump has called for building a wall along our border with Mexico and has referred to Mexicans as murderers and rapists. He has called for a total ban on Muslims from entering the country and implicated American Muslims as complicit in terrorism.

The city of Dayton has had a very open policy to immigration efforts in the past decade, but only 4 percent of the state is foreign-born — roughly a third of the national average. And of that tiny group of immigrants, fewer than one in five is here without the necessary papers, according to a report by the Migration Policy Institute.

Trump intends to significantly reduce marginal tax rates, increase standard deduction amounts, repeal personal exemptions and cap itemized deductions, Bob Williams, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute, told the Associated Press.

His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the richest households, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). According to TPC’s analysis of his tax plan, on average, households throughout the income distribution would see their tax bills go down.

Economists have said a Trump victory followed by market volatility and risk-off posturing, which is happening today, could decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December.

“A Trump win could trigger uncertainty and volatility. There would probably be a flight to safe havens in and outside the U.S., but this time the USD would not benefit from the riskoff sentiment,” according to a report by Societe Generale’s Cross Asset Research team. “Central banks, notably the Fed, would support the market with a more dovish stance.”

The Associated Press and Reporter Barrie Barber contributed to this story.