ANALYSIS: 10 thoughts from filling out a 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket

I put mine off for a couple of days because I was wrapped up with covering the First Four, but I broke things down and cranked one out Wednesday afternoon.

Have I got all the answers?

Well, of course! I can confidently guarantee several of these games — at least — will be correctly picked.

I have never gone 0 for 63 yet, and I don’t intend to start now.

In all seriousness, I think I’ve written before the key to enjoying a bracket contest is not to expect to actually win, and I started feeling that way before I filled out about a dozen consecutive terrible brackets.

This season is no different.

One year after two Cinderellas made the Final Four, some are expecting chaos again, and they might be right.

I only see a couple of dominant teams — Connecticut and Houston.

They have tough but winnable regions, so those are my final two.

Like the rest of America, I have no faith in Purdue, but the Boilermakers don’t have the toughest of draws. They should make the second weekend, but another early exit wouldn’t be surprising, either.

In all I picked nine first-round upsets and put three double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, which could make me look like a genius or have me eliminated from winning any competitions by Saturday morning.

Here are a few more thoughts I had while filling out my bracket, which you can see and complete against in our annual Battle of the Brackets competition:

1. I am going with Morehead State over Illinois for multiple reasons.

The Fighting Illini play an abhorrent style of basketball, flipping the Michigan State script by abusing teams with physical OFFENSE and daring them to do anything about it without getting into foul trouble.

They’ve also not made a Sweet 16 under coach Brad Underwood, and Morehead State plays at a slow rate, defends and makes 3s, a good recipe for an upset.

2. I guess I’m banking on Kentucky finishing strong after getting healthy.

Marquette has some injury questions, too, but it’s hard to feel comfortable trusting UK coach John Calipari in March.

His Wildcats rarely seem to reach their potential in the biggest month of the season...

3. I went with College of Charleston over Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have poor defensive numbers and I’d rather root for Charleston anyway!

4. I debated what to do with Dayton for a while.

Coach Steve Alford’s Nevada team is balanced and has tournament experience.

Dayton’s slow pace of play tends to raise the variance of outcomes by keeping games close that don’t necessarily have to be if a more athletic team is out running and gunning.

The Wolfpack have plenty of athleticism and a good perimeter defense, which could impact a strength of the Flyers (outside shooting).

Dayton’s recent stumbles are well-documented, but I have a feeling the Flyers might really benefit from getting out of Atlantic 10 play, where everyone knows them very well. I don’t want to root against the Flyers for the sake of my bracket, but then again maybe if I pick the ‘Pack that would work as a reverse jinx?

5. I don’t feel real good about that West bracket overall.

I’m not sure about North Carolina or Arizona both coming from leagues that were down, but talent shouldn’t be a question for either team.

6. I picked Colorado State to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16.

I was impressed with how the Rams looked at both ends of the floor in Dayton on Tuesday night, and Tennessee is a one-man show in Dalton Knecht.

7. Putting Purdue in the Midwest makes that region wide open.

I think Creighton has been building toward a Final Four run for a couple of seasons, and the Bluejays also have the size to match up with the Boilermakers if they see them in the Elite Eight.

8. The South could be dramatic.

Potential matchups of Houston and Duke in the Sweet 16 and Houston and Marquette in the Elite Eight are tantalizing, plus Kentucky looms as a wild card if the Wildcats put it together (and keep it together).

9. And how about the East?

The region is interesting because defending champion Connecticut is the consensus best team but might have to go through fellow 2023 Final Four teams Florida Atlantic and San Diego State to get to the regional final.

There Dan Hurley’s team could run into a very strong Iowa State squad that already took down Houston this month in the Big 12 Tournament.

10. North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke and Arizona have talent, but it is more volatile.

If more than one of them makes the Final Four, it would not be surprising, but neither would an early upset loss.