The Reds have a 26.1 percent chance of winning one of the two wild cards.
While the Reds are in the middle of the race, what hurts their chances is the schedule ahead. They play three games at home, starting Friday, against the Chicago White Sox (31-16), who have the second-best record in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-15). The Reds also close the season with a three-game series on the road against the Minnesota Twins (30-19), one of six teams in baseball with 30 or more victories.
The Reds and Pirates continue their four-game series at 6:40 p.m. Tuesday in Cincinnati.