According to FanGraphs.com, the Reds have a 40 percent chance of winning the wild card. The Padres have a 38 percent chance. The Cardinals have a 12 percent chance.
The Reds have 18 games remaining and will play 13 games against teams with losing records. The Padres have 20 games to play and have no more games against teams with losing records. The Cardinals also have 20 games left and have 10 games against winning teams, including three against the Padres.
Here’s how their schedules compare:
• Reds: Sept. 14-16, at Pittsburgh Pirates (52-91); Sept. 17-19, vs. Dodgers (91-53); Sept. 20-22, vs. Pirates; Sept. 23-26, vs. Washington Nationals (59-84); Sept. 28-29, at Chicago White Sox (82-61); Oct. 1-3, at Pirates.
• Padres: Sept. 13-16, at San Francisco Giants (93-50); Sept. 17-19, at Cardinals; Sept. 21-23, vs. Giants; Sept. 24-26, vs. Atlanta Braves (76-66); Sept. 28-30, at Dodgers; Oct. 1-3, at Giants.
• Cardinals: Sept. 13-15, at New York Mets (71-72); Sept. 17-19, vs. Padres; Sept. 20-23, at Milwaukee Brewers (89-55); Sept. 24-26, at Chicago Cubs (65-79); Sept. 28-30, vs. Milwaukee; Oct. 1-3, vs. Cubs.
The winner of the second wild-card will play on the road against the Giants or Dodgers, whoever doesn’t win the West Division, on Oct. 6. That game will air on TBS.