The computer service KenPom.com has a metric for “luck,” which is defined as “the deviation between a team’s actual record and its expected record based on game-by-game efficiency.”
Essentially, if teams win more games than their offensive and defensive performance suggests they should, they’re considered “lucky.” If they lose more than they ought to, they’re “unlucky.”
It measures how much teams are over- or under-performing in their efficiency metrics, and the Raiders are rated 365th out of 365 teams.
When they went 2-9 in either overtime games or games decided by four points or fewer last season, they were 319th in the “luck” category.
The Raiders’ five wins this year have come by 17 points or more, and three of their six losses were fingernail-gnawers: one in overtime and two by a combined three points — all away from home.
But while their record could be much better, coach Clint Sargent wouldn’t want to attribute the negative results to forces beyond their control. They’re not snakebit.
He believes they simply have to perform better in crunch time.
“I thought we were pretty resilient,” he said of the 76-74 loss at Marshall on Saturday. “We had a number of guys at different times step up and compete through the chaos of it. I thought our guys were very gritty.
“We just fell one or two plays short, and we’ll learn from it.”
The Raiders may need some late-game magic Tuesday when they host Miami, which is 10-0 and has matched its best start since World War II.
The 1943-44 and 1917-18 teams also started 10-0.
They’re in the top-10 in the country in scoring with a 93.2 average and scoring margin at 24.2. They kept their winning streak alive with a 79-69 win Saturday at Eastern Kentucky.
They have an all-time edge in the series at 21-19 but have lost the last six meetings.
Credit: Bryant Billing
Credit: Bryant Billing
“I’m thankful we have a quick turnaround and thankful we, arguably, are facing the best team we’ve played. I know we’ve played Butler and Cal. But they’re very heavy in retention. They’re obviously playing at a very high level. I can’t wait,” Sargent said.
The RedHawks, led by fourth-year coach Travis Steele, went 25-9 last season and lost by two to Akron in the MAC championship game.
They’re ranked 119th in KenPom, weighed down by a schedule ranked only 364th (the second-easiest in the country).
Wright State is ranked 142nd.
In the NET ratings, the RedHawks are 79th and the Raiders 139th (81 spots higher than last season)
“I give a lot of credit to coach Steele. He kept his team together from last year. For that to happen, you’ve got to have NIL support. And your guys have to want to play there and be there. They have all of that going,” Sargent said.
“A big credit also goes to the athletic department for being serious about winning, and you’re seeing the fruit of that.”
NEXT GAME
Who: Miami at Wright State
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 1410-AM, 101.5-FM
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