The current Raiders sit in fourth with five games to go. First place is probably out of reach, but they still have a chance for a high seed and can carry some momentum into the HL tourney.
But coach Scott Nagy, whose team begins the homestretch by hosting Robert Morris at 1 p.m. Saturday, has lost confidence in his ability to read his team — understandably so.
“You get down to the end of the season, and the games just feel weightier — even though they count the same,” he said.
“But everybody else is thinking the same way. It’s just as important to Robert Morris. They’re going to be desperate. Are we?”
The Raiders knocked off Cleveland State on the road Jan. 25, climbing out of a 10-point hole to send the game into overtime and dominating the extra session.
One week later, they fell to Youngstown State at the Nutter Center and were searching for explanations for what went wrong.
They breezed past preseason favorite Northern Kentucky at raucous Truist Arena on Feb. 4, signaling they’d broken out of their malaise and were ready for a title push.
But they blew almost all of a 22-point lead and barely escaped against winless Detroit Mercy at home, and they followed that with a demoralizing loss to visiting Oakland, triggering a new round of soul-searching
“I wish I had better feelings with our team, but I don’t. Just kind of the way we’ve been all year, I wish I could say, ‘Oh, I KNOW we’re going to show up and play desperate.’ I just don’t have that feel for our guys,” Nagy said.
The one constant for the Raiders this year has been superior offense, but it was AWOL for the first time all season in the 74-60 loss to Oakland on Saturday.
They shot 33.8% from the field and 17.9% on 3′s — their worst shooting displays in both categories in two years.
They also had their lowest point total of the year after never having scored fewer than 71.
“I’ve coached a long time, and it’s just weird how quickly things can change,” Nagy said.
“The Northern Kentucky game was probably as good a game in terms of just being together and pulling in the same direction as we could have. And then you just flip it, and we didn’t have a very good week. It’s hard to understand.
“I don’t spend a lot of time trying to figure it out because I know it can flip back the other way just as quickly.”
The absence of top sub Andrew Welage has no doubt contributed to the inconsistency.
The 6-6 senior, who leads the team in 3-point shooting at 45.5% — he went 7 of 10 from the arc against Indiana — reportedly has been battling an abdominal injury along with some sickness and has played in only one of the last six games.
“He hasn’t been healthy,” Nagy said. “He’s coming off the flu now, and he really hasn’t practiced in at least two weeks, maybe even more.”
The Raiders still easily lead the nation in field-goal shooting at 52.9% and are seventh in scoring at 85 points per game.
But they’ve proven they can’t win unless they’re scoring at a high clip.
They’re just 1-8 when they’ve been held under 80 points. The lone victory came in the Gulf Coast Showcase, where they beat offensively challenged Illinois State, 74-49.
“Mostly, you can just lay that at the feet of our defense, even though the last game it wasn’t the case,” Nagy said.
“When your defense struggles, it leads to inconsistency.”
SATURDAY’S GAME
Robert Morris at Wright State, 1 p.m., ESPN+, 101.5
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