When first thinking about how to respond to that question, my most immediate answer is that “we are only half way through winter, we have a long way to go”. Of course, it is also dependent on what your definition of a big snow is. When I think of a big snow, I think of a storm that can produce over 4 inches of snow. But the later we get into February, the lower the chances of a “big snow” will be.
Last week, my colleague meteorologist McCall Vrydaghs and I researched winters where we’ve had very little snow through the first half to see how often we then had a lot of snow in the second half. However, we could find no statistically compelling data that suggest the likelihood of that happening here in the Miami Valley as it seemed to happen about 50 percent of the time. While there is still a chance we could make up for the lack of snow thus far, much of the long range data suggests that may be very difficult for us to do this year as temperatures are likely to remain above normal the rest of the month. It is looking increasingly likely that if we have any “big snow” events, we may have to wait until March for them to occur.