In a 2007 study entitled “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections”, a team of researchers led by Brad T. Gomez of the University of Georgia compared the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 presidential elections. The study consistently showed that when there was bad weather, voter turnout was significantly lower. Researchers found that for about every inch of rain that fell, voter turnout dropped about 1 percent. The impact from snow wasn’t as big. Voter turnout dropped about one half of a percent for every one inch of snow. Perhaps more significantly, in terms of how elections actually turn out, the results showed that this impact disproportionately affected Democratic voters — perhaps due to socioeconomic factors which may make turning out harder for citizens with fewer resources at their disposal.
In 1960, for example, the research suggested that Nixon would have taken seven more states and 105 electoral votes if the weather had not been so mild. And in 2000, Florida would have swung to Gore if it wasn’t for unusually heavy rainfall depressing the turnout.
A more recent study conducted by Ipsos in 2012 found that 35 percent of undecided voters reported that bad weather would have a “moderate to significant” impact on whether they voted. The study also found a more pronounced impact on those who would have voted Democratic versus Republican by a 27 percent to 20 percent margin.
On this election day, there are no big storm systems moving across the country. However, of all the states considered to be battleground states this year, only Ohio and Florida could be impacted by rain. It is likely that quiet weather across much of the country will likely help contribute to high voter turnout. Of course, with early voting now very popular, how much the weather actually plays on election results in recent years is more complicated. I guess we’ll know soon enough.
Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
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