Eric Elwell: Winter returning after January thaw

Credit: DaytonDailyNews

Last week we remembered the Blizzard of 1978 and the devastating impact it had on our state and across the region.

I had a chance to reminisce about the storm with my colleague Chery McHenry who was working in her college cafeteria in Cincinnati during that blizzard. She remembered the heavy snow being combined with 50 to 60 plus mile per hour wind gusts. Cheryl mentioned how that storm was a once-in-a-lifetime storm and hopes she never experiences anything like that again. While I wasn’t here for that storm, I do remember being stranded by over a foot of snow in my hometown of McMinnville, Tenn. during the Superstorm of 1993 that hit in March of that year. That storm also clipped Ohio with heavy snow.

Another big storm in more recent memory was the near blizzard of 2008 which was also a March storm. I was working in Columbus as that storm dumped over 20 inches of snow within 48 hours which was the biggest snow event from a single storm. It does seem that some of our more memorable storms in Ohio have occurred during the second half of winter.

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This winter, so far, has been relatively quiet. Like me, you may find it hard to believe that the month of January is coming to a close and Groundhog Day is upon us. For the month of January, we’ve not had a single day that would be considered “sunny” by the technical definition (clouds in one-fourth of the visible sky or less). We’ve had 20 completely or almost completely cloudy days. If this pattern of cloudy days continues – then perhaps Dayton’s famous Groundhog – Rosie, along with friends Buckeye Chuck and Punxsutawney Phil will not see their shadows, and spring will indeed arrive early.

Even with snow showers making a return to the Miami Valley over the weekend, we’ve so far escaped winter without any major snow storms. Our biggest snow event with over 4 inches of snow didn’t even come during the winter. It came about a week before winter even officially started.

But if you are a snow lover then you may just have some hope yet this winter. It appears February may bring more active weather across the Miami Valley and it also appears that the colder temperatures will likely stick around – at least for a while.

The latest long-range forecasts for the first half of February is calling for temperatures to be near or slightly below normal with above normal precipitation. This could single a return to a snowier weather pattern for much of the Ohio Valley. It also appears that the southern branch of the Jetstream which typically resides across the southern United States may become much more active. This will bring an increasing threat of storm systems into our region as early as Superbowl Sunday. While the details are still to be worked out, another storm system could increase the threat for wintry weather the second week of February in the Ohio Valley.

After a long January thaw, the outlook for February is looking much more winter-like in Ohio. So, don’t write off winter of 2016-2017 just yet! We’ve got a long way to go.

Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

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