Thanksgiving travel forecast: more crowded roads than 2024, virtually same gas prices

Vehicles travel on Interstate 675 below the Wright State Way pedestrian bridge on Thursday, November 20, 2025, in Fairborn. Approximately 81.8 people are projected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period, according to AAA. JOSEPH COOKE/STAFF

Vehicles travel on Interstate 675 below the Wright State Way pedestrian bridge on Thursday, November 20, 2025, in Fairborn. Approximately 81.8 people are projected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period, according to AAA. JOSEPH COOKE/STAFF

Those traveling out of the area this Thanksgiving holiday weekend are expected to find more crowded travels than in previous years.

Approximately 81.8 million people are projected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday to Monday, according to the American Automobile Association.

That’s an increase of 1.6 million people over Thanksgiving 2024. Among those travelers are expected to be nearly 3.4 million Ohioans, 2.1% more than last year, and the highest Thanksgiving travel volume since AAA began tracking in 2000.

Thanksgiving travel numbers are consistently high since the holiday has become synonymous with hitting the roads or catching a flight to spend time with loved ones, according to Morgan Dean, spokesperson for AAA Club Alliance.

“It doesn’t matter whether you’re headed out to the airport, to the train station, to the bus station, or if you’re getting on the road for the holiday, you’re not going to be alone,” Dean told this news outlet. “It’s going to be busy out there.”

In the region, nearly 274,600 people from Montgomery, Miami, Greene and Clark counties will travel 50 miles or more, according to AAA.

Those who are driving to their Thanksgiving destination will find roads more packed than they’ve been in years past.

Approximately 73 million people nationwide are projected to travel by vehicle, nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers and an additional 1.3 million travelers on the road compared to last year.

That number eclipses pre-pandemic numbers of 2019, when 70.6 million people traveled by motor vehicle to their Thanksgiving destinations.

Vehicles travel on Interstate 675 below the Wright State Way pedestrian bridge on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Fairborn. Approximately 81.8 million people are projected to travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period, according to AAA. JOSEPH COOKE/STAFF

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Approximately 3.4 million Ohioans are projected to travel this year, an expected 2% boost in travelers compared to Thanksgiving 2024. Nearly 3 million of those Ohioans are expected to travel by car. That’s 1.7% more than Thanksgiving 2024 and a 3.1% change from 2019 to 2025.

“When you look at Thanksgiving, it’s a unique holiday for a lot of people, especially those with kids in school,” Dean said. “It’s really only a long weekend because you’re tied to school schedules. This is a holiday where people want to get together with friends and family and loved ones and celebrate being thankful, and people are going to get those trips in.”

AAA reported Thursday that the national average gas price is lower than the same period last year, making this Thanksgiving’s prices the second lowest since 2019.

“Despite the burst of gasoline demand that will occur during Thanksgiving week, overall demand is low this time of year which helps keep pump prices down,” AAA said. “The national average has seen few fluctuations in 2025 thanks to low crude oil prices and no major storms affecting Gulf Coast refineries.

Lows for gas in Montgomery, Greene, Miami, Butler and Clark counties sat at $2.48, $2.41, $2.53, $2.40 and $2.52, respectively, on Friday, according to GasBuddy.

The nation’s top three most expensive gasoline markets are California ($4.63), Hawaii ($4.47) and Washington ($4.18).

The nation’s top three least expensive gasoline markets are Oklahoma ($2.57), Mississippi ($2.61) and Louisiana ($2.65).

While AAA’s survey shows more Americans planning to drive to their holiday destination this holiday weekend compared to 2024, GasBuddy’s annual Thanksgiving Travel Survey shows the opposite.

According to the survey, 60% of Americans plan to take a road trip this holiday weekend, a steep drop from 72% who took a road trip in 2024.

That expected decline comes “even as gas prices remain near the lowest holiday level since the pandemic,” according to GasBuddy.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said that “even with affordable gas, economic uncertainty can make people stay closer to home.”

“The stock market was up 700 points three hours ago, now it’s down,” De Haan told this news outlet mid-Thursday afternoon. “It’s kind of illustrative of how people are feeling good at one moment, bad the other. This year, if I were to make some assumptions in reading some of the feedback from the survey, people are a little on edge with the economy. There’s a bit of uncertainty.”

Gas prices in Ohio are showing signs of relief ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with Dayton prices down 11 cents from last week and wholesale gasoline costs dropping sharply over the past two days.

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De Haan said it’s likely the next price hike will not occur until after the holiday, giving drivers temporary reprieve at the pump.

He said gas stations often undercut each other aggressively when wholesale prices fall, especially before heavy travel periods.

The heightened competition could push prices even lower, with some stations expected to dip into the $2.40 to $2.50 range compared with the average price of gas at most Miami Valley stations, which are at or just under $2.90.

The GasBuddy survey also said that most people traveling by vehicle plan to leave early to mid-morning on Wednesday, De Haan said.

According to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, the most congested roadways will get are between noon and 9 p.m. today and the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, then from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday after the holiday.

AAA reports that more people are choosing to travel by airplane this year, 6.1 million of them nationwide, a 2.1% increase compared to last year and 14.9% more than 2019.

More than 290,000 Ohioans are expected be traveling via airplane this holiday weekend, up 3.6% over Thanksgiving 2024 and up 20% compared to Thanksgiving 2019. Among them will be approximately 23,000 from Montgomery, Miami, Greene and Clark counties, up 3.8% compared to last year.

“While we don’t know the load factors yet, we have increased capacity by 14% since 2023 for the month of November and holiday travel is a factor in that increased capacity,” Dayton International Airport spokeswoman Melissa Riley Patsiavos told this news outlet.

The airport will have extra operational and security staff, and its TSA officers will also have increased staffing levels to accommodate the increased passenger traffic over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, Patsiavos said.

Those flying out of Dayton International Airport should be sure to review their itinerary, check flight status and check in on the airline app to start a trip, she said.

“When packing, double check the TSA guidelines and ensure any liquids that are more than 3.4 oz are packed in your checked luggage,” Patsiavos said. “Also, arrive early as we expect increased traffic and fuller flights.”

Nationally, nearly 2.5 million people are expected to travel by alternate modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains, an 8.5% increase compared to 2024 and a 29.3% leap over 2019.

Ohioans will account for nearly 103,300 of that number, up 8.5% from last year and up 36% from the pre-pandemic days of 2019.

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