Iranians have now had enough democracy to know they want more of it, and they’ve had enough Islamic ideology and sanctions to know they want less of them.
No, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, did not allow Rouhani to win and start negotiations by accident. The power struggle in Iran is no longer just between the Revolutionary Guards and the more pragmatic clerics. The Iranian silent majority is now empowered, and Rouhani’s charm offensive was dictated as much by them as by the supreme leader.
Rouhani is here because Iran’s regime is both overextended and underintegrated.
Ten years ago, America was overextended in the Middle East — mired in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, Iran’s regime is overextended, expending men and money every day to keep the Syrian regime alive, Hezbollah on its feet in Lebanon and its allies fortified in Iraq and Afghanistan. But while the regime is overextended, Iranians under age 30 — some 60 percent of the population — feel underintegrated with the rest of the world. They want to be able to study, work and travel in — and listen to music, read books and watch films from — the rest of the world. That means lifting sanctions.
The fact that Rouhani could not shake Obama’s hand because he feared a photo-op would be used against him by hard-line Revolutionary Guards back home — before he had gains to show for it — tells us how hard it will be to reach the only kind of nuclear deal Obama can sign on to. That is one that affirms Iran’s right to produce fuel for civilian nuclear power, but with a nuclear enrichment infrastructure small enough, and international oversight and safeguards stringent enough, that a quick breakout to a bomb would be impossible.
Geopolitics is all about leverage: who’s got it and who doesn’t. Today, the negotiating table is tilted our way. That is to Obama’s credit. We should offer Iranians a deal that accedes to their desire for civilian nuclear power and thus affirms their scientific prowess while insisting on a foolproof inspection regime. We can accept that deal, but can they? I don’t know. But if we put it on the table and make it public, so the Iranian people also get a vote, you’ll see real politics break out there, and it won’t merely be about the quality of Iran’s nuclear program but about quality of life.
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