Historically, many consider 1950 as when the growth of developed land really began; coincidentally, the U.S. population nearly doubled between 1950 and 2000. Millions of baby boomers found work after World War II. They had steady, solid income and started families.
Think about the Dayton area in this era. Huber Heights and Kettering began to blossom during this time. The interstate highway system began its enormous growth and urban dwellers started choosing the suburbs over city centers. Shopping centers soon followed.
In more recent times, we look at the growth between Dayton and Cincinnati. Some would consider the growth disproportionate. But if you consider the multiple access points on the eight lanes of highway connecting the two cities, it would be logical for the growth along the corridor to be natural. A family can live between the two cities and have the best of both.
The perception of urban sprawl can vary greatly depending on one’s viewpoint. During the housing bubble, the home-building industry took considerable heat — most photos depicting sprawl had rooftops of new home communities. The acreage developed for our interstate highway system could support many more homes than could be built.
Many outside the industry feel home builders and developers search out the most pristine and least costly land to build their next community of new homes. In actuality, home building and developing is a market-driven industry and the primary reason developers choose a site is home buyers want to buy a home where they find most desirable to live. Infrastructure also is included in the equation to keep the communities sustainable and affordable. Most importantly, quality schools play a role. Amenities and surrounding communities, along with the right product, are factored into most home-purchasing decisions.
The fallout from the housing crisis and the potential change in buyer demographics and desires may alter the future of development. The home-building industry has become very comfortable catering to baby boomers. The next generation of household formations, larger than the baby boomers, will be Generation Y or Millennials. These are the children of baby boomers.
The number of Millennials living in the U.S. in 2012 is estimated at 80 million. These potential new home buyers pose new challenges for home builders and developers. There is uncertainty: Will they follow in their parents’ footsteps, buying homes and purchasing move-up homes?
Many have seen their parents struggle during the housing crisis. Many may rent for career flexibility until later in life. Many may want to hold off on purchasing cars, so they will want more walkable communities. Even the shopping centers of the future will be re-evaluated as online giants such as Amazon will soon have delivery down to the minute for a variety of items, such as car tires to grapes.
These shifts in buyer demographics — combined with baby boomers’ renewed interest in urban living — will have builders and developers examining their future product mix to accommodate two such large markets. One thing for sure? The face of “urban sprawl” will definitely change.
Walt Hibner is executive director of the Home Builders Association of Dayton.
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