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Since the economic recovery began in 2009, the seven-year average was 3.4 percent.
“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “This year hasn’t been perfect, starting with a long summer and unseasonably warm fall, but our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and industry expectations.”
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Shay said the federation remains optimistic about the economic activity for the holiday season. NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model that uses several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases.
Retailers are already preparing for the holiday season.
Office supply retailer Staples announced it would close its doors on Thanksgiving Day, but plans to open at 6 a.m. for Black Friday. The company will offer in-store and online deals for the holiday, and will launch a weekly ad preview in November of special holiday savings.
“We encourage our customers and employees to enjoy Thanksgiving however they choose, with their families and friends,” said Steve Matyas, president of North American retail for Staples.
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Dan Myers, divisional merchandise manager of toys for Michigan-based retailer Meijer, said the company conducts approximately half of its toy business in the months of November and December.
The retailer, which operates 230 supercenters and grocery stores in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Wisconsin, is already promoting the “hottest” toy trends for this year.
The top toys include Hot Wheels Criss Cross Crass Playset, Build-A-Bear Stuff Me Station, Paw Patrol Zooming Marshall, and the Syma Sky Thunder Drone D550W.
“This year’s toy trends focus on allowing children to customize the toy to their liking through voice commands and artistic designs, while also learning through interaction,” Myers said.
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Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for NRF, said consumers have seen steady job and income gains this year, resulting in confidence to spend money and a greater use of credit.
“Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the presidential election outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main issues at play with the greatest potential to shake consumer confidence and impact shopping patterns,” Kelinhenz said.
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