ELECTION 2016
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One has $10 million in the bank but lags in polls. Another is well-known, but has yet to see financial momentum keep up with name recognition. A third is getting national press but has been largely dismissed by the Democratic establishment.
It’s more than 16 months before the next race for the U.S. Senate, but analysts say Ohio’s Senate race promises to be one of the more fascinating ones of the 2016 political season.
Sen. Rob Portman, a freshman senator who previously served as U.S. trade representative, director of Office of Management and Budget and a congressman from southern Ohio, has been one of the most prolific fundraisers the state has seen in decades, but his name recognition remains low statewide.
The most recent June 22 Quinnipiac Poll had him six points behind Democrat and former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who was voted out of office in 2010.
Republicans say they’re not concerned about the polls, chalking it up to name identification – something that can be easily rectified. And Portman, who raised $2.9 million last quarter and who has $10 million in the bank, has the money to get recognized.
Adding another layer of complexity to Strickland’s bid to face Portman is Democrat P.G. Sittenfeld, a 30-year-old Cincinnati city councilman making his first bid for statewide office. The Democratic establishment in the state has largely rallied around Strickland, but the party’s decision not to invite Sittenfeld to address a recent Ohio Democratic Party dinner was criticized by some as demonstrating a less-than-inviting environment to political newcomers. It’s also kept Strickland from being able to fully focus on picking apart Portman’s record.
Sittenfeld has been bolstered as well by a few high-profile media pieces. Just last week, Yahoo News profiled him as a candidate for millennials, highlighting the story on its home page. Sittenfeld, said spokesman Dale Butland "clearly is the progressive candidate in this race."
For now, the race seems to be one primarily between Portman and Strickland. Both are waging nearly daily attacks, with Portman’s campaign attacking Strickland’s tenure as governor and his leadership of a liberal Democratic group in Washington, D.C., and Strickland traveling the state last week bashing Portman’s support of a trade deal between the U.S. and Pacific Rim countries.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics, a nonpartisan political newsletter, said despite the fact that Strickland is leading him in polls, the news isn't all bad for Portman. "While he doesn't have great name I.D., he's generally well liked," he said, saying his approval ratings are pretty solid. "I think I'd still rather be Portman than Strickland given that the incumbent is probably going to have more money."
"We're going to see a lot of polling and lot of it is pretty dubious," said Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. She said Portman's poor performance in polls is likely all about name I.D. "The people who know him and can rate him say he's doing a good job," she said.
Duffy was stunned by Strickland’s second quarter fundraising – he raised just over $1 million and has $1.2 million in the bank. “For a former governor, you’d expect a little more,” she said. Portman, meanwhile, raised $2.9 million last quarter. Sittenfeld, meanwhile, has seen his fundraising drop precipitously since Strickland entered the race, going from $750,000 during the first quarter to $272,136 in the second.
Portman issues with Republican base
But John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute for Applied Politics at the University of Akron said other factors might weigh into Portman's fate as well.
Portman “has some problems in his base,” said Green, who said Portman irritated some social conservatives by announcing he supports gay marriage after his son, Will, came out as gay. But the same conservatives who are now skeptical of Portman, however, may end up voting for him by the time November 2016 rolls around, he said.
Portman’s polls also might echo Congress’ approval ratings, Green said. “In poll after poll about Congress, the whole institution rates poorly,” he said. “But Democrats typically do a little better than Republicans.”
To counter the polls, Portman has worked on his ground game, setting up offices in Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland. This summer they've got more than 100 interns working at all three and have contacted more than 130,000 voters. Last week they announced an "African Americans for Portman caucus led by former GOP lieutenant governor Jennette Bradley, a group which also includes Larry James, a lawyer who held a fundraiser for Obama in 2012. They've rounded up endorsements from the vast majority of GOP lawmakers in the state. And they've run a series of digital ads aimed at raising Portman's profile and bashing Strickland's record as governor.
But Strickland’s people are skeptical of the African Americans for Portman caucus, saying Strickland doesn’t need to set up a special council because he has diversity throughout his campaign. His campaign manager is African-American, and he’s been endorsed by Reps. Joyce Beatty, D-Jefferson Township and Marcia Fudge, D-Cleveland, both members of the Congressional Black Caucus, among others.
Presidential race will impact Ohio Senate race
Still, Portman’s campaign says his early organization speaks to how serious Portman is about the race. Corry Bliss, Portman’s campaign manager, said the organization “ is a testament to the energy and excitement behind Rob’s campaign.”
He said of the 3,901 donors to Portman’s campaign in the second quarter, 2914 – 74 percent – were from Ohio.
By contrast, Strickland’s campaign recently set up an office in Columbus and hired Justin Brennan away from Priorities USA, a Clinton super PAC. Strickland has been traveling the state bashing Portman on trade, and according to a spokeswoman he has collected grassroots support from all 88 counties.
Strickland, the spokeswoman said, is already well-known. He won’t have to boost his name recognition.
“Ohioans know Ted Strickland as the son of steelworker who worked his way from a dirt floor to become the first in his family to graduate from college, and they won’t be fooled into thinking otherwise by a guy like Portman who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth,” said Jennifer Donohue, an Ohio Democratic Party spokeswoman who is helping Strickland’s campaign.
The race, however, is well over a year away, and one major question is unresolved: Who will be at the top of the ticket? If Democrat Hillary Clinton wins, analysts say, Strickland will gain an untold advantage. “The presidential campaign is really what drives the turnout,” said Green.
And polls, he said, change.
“At some point it doesn’t matter what the polls say today,” Green said. “It matters what they say next year.”
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