In November, voters rejected the law 62 to 38 percent.
The collective bargaining changes were part of a GOP Statehouse agenda that included expanding vouchers for private schools, privatizing prisons and the state’s economic development agency, imposing restrictions on abortions, cutting back the window for early voting, allowing permit holders to carry concealed guns in bars, opening state parks to oil and gas drilling, and cutting back funds for schools and local governments as a way of balancing the state budget.
It’s too soon to tell if any lawmakers lose their seats due to a backlash, but this much is clear: It would take a lot of Democratic upsets to loosen the grip Republicans have on state government.
Democrats hold 10 of 33 Senate seats and 40 of 99 House seats. Complicating the math for Democrats is that their candidates will be running in new legislative districts drawn by Republicans.
Jason Mauk, the former Ohio GOP executive director who helped run the pro-Senate Bill 5 campaign, said voters are forward-thinking and don’t want to rehash last year’s debate about collective bargaining.
“Ohioans care more about what candidates are going to do to help the economy today,” said Mauk, who is now chief of staff for the Senate Republican caucus. “Our candidates will be offering ideas and solutions to fix Ohio’s economy in the future. We are not obsessing over past debates.”
Senate Republicans are even looking to increase their majority by picking up a seat now held by state Sen. Lou Gentile, D-Steubenville, Mauk said.
Down-ticket races often get ignored in presidential election years, despite high stakes for both the winners and losers. Control of the legislature determines which legislation gets passed and the scope of changes often affects wide swaths of the public.
Democrats say Republican “over-reach” is why the party was able to field candidates in all 99 House districts — a feat that wasn’t matched by the Republicans, who are not running candidates in eight Democratic districts. The Democrats, however, do not have candidates running in five of the 17 Senate districts on the ballot.
“The House Democratic caucus is very impressed with the number of candidates that we have and because of the Republican over-reach and the attack on the middle class, we will be able to make significant gains,” said Alex Youn, executive director of the Ohio House Democratic Caucus. “How many gains that is — it’s too early to determine. If the Republicans continue as they are, we’ll be in a very good position.”
The Republicans have been the party in good position ever since the hugely successful election season in 2010. The Ohio GOP holds the governor’s office, all four other statewide constitutional jobs and six of seven seats on the Supreme Court. U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown and Supreme Court Justice Yvette McGee Brown are the only two Democrats holding statewide office in Ohio and both Browns are running this year to hang onto their jobs.
Mauk said the Republican leadership hasn’t just pushed proposals backed by Republicans. Bipartisan legislation a landmark criminal sentencing reform bill that reworks how offenders are punished and aims to cut back the number of prisoners Ohio keeps behind bars. Democrats also did not object to a Kasich administration overhaul of Ohio Medicaid, which shifts the focus from paying for procedures to paying for positive patient outcomes and coordinating treatment.
No one disputes the pace of legislative action has been blistering.
Since January 2011, the General Assembly has passed 157 bills out of one chamber or both and Kasich has signed 74 bills into law. In contrast, Democrat Ted Strickland signed 58 bills into law during his last two years as governor when Democrats controlled the House and Republicans controlled the Senate.
Democratic political consultant Greg Haas of Columbus said it will be “extremely difficult” for Democrats to recapture control of the House, but it is possible because of bills like SB 5. “We will see how much momentum stays from Senate Bill 5. I know Republicans say that’s behind us now and I’m sure that’s true for some people. But (the Republicans) have really showed themselves,” Haas said. If the GOP maintains control of the Legislature, Haas predicts that they’ll be emboldened to push “extreme ideas.”
“They’re not going to back off at all,” he said.
One issue that is looming on the horizon is whether Republicans will delve into a push for a constitutional amendment to make Ohio a “right-to-work” state. It would secure the right of employees to decide for themselves whether or not to join or financially support a union — something that big business would embrace and organized labor would fight.
Coming off the throttling he received over Senate Bill 5, Kasich has been cool to the proposal, though a citizen signature drive has been announced to put the issue on the ballot either in 2012 or 2013.
Brian Rothenberg of ProgressOhio, a liberal political group based in Columbus, said polls show voters are fed up with lawmakers and he expects a backlash against majority legislators in Ohio and nationwide.
“Recent Ohio history has shown wide swings among voters in presidential years. Even with redistricting, the 2010 landslide created was over-reach so undoubtedly there will be some rollback. And I would much rather be a party not in power in this polling environment than the party in power,” Rothenberg said. “Ignore partisan crowing this year, anything is possible with these public opinion numbers on legislators.”
Columbus-based Republican political consultant Bob Clegg said Republican lawmakers aren’t running away from the bills that they have passed. “If they keep the majority, that means there must be some agreement (from voters) with that agenda,” he said.
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