Study: Yes, robots are coming for your jobs

A new study finds “large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages.”

Robots are chipping away at American workers, write the authors, Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University.

In particular, industrial robots are “anticipated to spread rapidly in the next several decades and assume tasks previously performed by labor.”

Up to 670,000 jobs so far have been taken over by robots, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research paper published this month.

The two analyzed 1990-2007 U.S. labor market data. After adjusting for economic variables such as offshoring, imports from overseas and other factors, the researchers estimate that each additional robot per thousand workers in some struggling areas decreased employment by 6.2 workers and wages by 0.7 percent.

Overall, the researchers concluded each additional robot per thousand workers reduces employment by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and stunts wages 0.25-0.5 percent.

Here are some other key elements from the paper: 

Robots quadruple: Between 1993 and 2007, the stock of robots in the United States and Western Europe increased fourfold.

Credit: Bill Lackey

Credit: Bill Lackey

Credit: Chris Stewart

Credit: Chris Stewart

Most manufacturing autos: The automotive industry employs 39 percent of existing industrial robots, followed by the electronics industry (19 percent), metal products (9 percent) and the plastic and chemicals industry (9 percent).

Jobs dwindle: The number of jobs lost due to robots has been limited to between 360,000 and 670,000 jobs, equivalent to a 0.18-0.34 percentage point decline in employment.

Will quadruple again: The International Federation of Robotics estimates there are between 1.5 and 1.75 million industrial robots in current operation, a number that could increase 4 to 6 million by 2025, according to another study.

Further employment reduction: Estimates show 5.25 more robots will be added per thousand workers in the United States between 2015 and 2025 leading to a 0.94-1.76 percent slide in employment and a 1.3-2.6 percent drop in wages growth.

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