ANALYSIS: Area high school football teams vie for playoff berths, positioning

Credit: David Jablonski

Credit: David Jablonski

High school football playoff positioning will be closely watched across the area on the final Friday night of the regular season.

For many years, the playoffs were limited to the top eight teams in each region. Last year because of COVID-shortened seasons, the OHSAA opened the playoffs to all teams and most took advantage.

This year the top 16 teams in each region make it, and the highest seeds will host the first two rounds, which means there are more meaningful finales than usual. What does that mean for the Greater Western Ohio Conference? Seven of the eight teams have secured a spot in the Division I, Region 2 field, according to “unofficial” projections at joeeitel.com.

Where they finish and will any of them play each other in the first round is what Friday night will determine. One of the most important games is No. 3 Centerville (7-2) at No. 4 Wayne (7-2).

“The seed is extremely important, especially when you look at our region,” Centerville coach Brent Ullery said. “It’s all about matchups, and you want to make sure you put your team in the best position to be successful. So it’s incredibly important for us to win this game and get as high a seed as possible.”

Predicting playoffs teams is a little more difficult than usual. Drew Pasteur, a math professor at the College of Wooster, used to operate a website called fantastic50.net to crunch the state’s computer ratings numbers to project playoff seedings. But Pasteur announced in August he wouldn’t be able to run the site this season because he needed to care for an ill family member.

Thankfully, Eitel provides maximum and minimum points a team can earn and projects teams as likely top four, top eight, top 12 and top 16 seeds. Eitel also lists teams as likely to control own destiny and likely eliminated.

Using Eitel’s projections as a guide, here’s what to watch for on Friday.

Division I: Marysville (8-0) clinched the top seed. Springfield (7-1) would wrap up second place with a win over No. 15 Northmont (3-5), likely sending the Thunderbolts to a first-round game at Marysville.

The Wayne-Centerville winner will finish third. The loser figures to drop at least one spot behind either Findlay or Toledo Whitmer if either or both wins.

Fairmont (5-4) is ninth and Miamisburg (6-3) is 10th. Fairmont is favored to beat winless Beavercreek, but the Firebirds will swap spots with Miamisburg if the Vikings win at No. 12 Springboro (4-4). If the Vikings lose, they will be no worse than 10th. And Springboro would finish no better than 11th with a win and no worse than 12th with a loss.

Division II: Kings (9-0) will win the top spot with a win at Little Miami (4-5). Piqua (9-0) will be no worse than second with a win at Stebbins (5-3).

Troy (5-3) is 10th with a home game against Division III Vandalia Butler (3-5), but the Trojans could finish as high as eighth if things go their way in Cincinnati. Withrow (8-1) faces Division III Hughes (6-1), and Turpin (6-3) faces No. 3 Anderson (7-2).

Stebbins, Sidney (4-5) and Xenia (5-3) are 12th through 14th, and Sidney plays at Xenia. Stebbins could drop to 16th with a loss, but only Loveland (2-7) could pass them, which is unlikely because Loveland plays No. 7 Winton Woods (6-3). The Sidney-Xenia loser could also drop to 16th, but, again, it would take a Loveland loss to move them that low.

However, because the teams at 15 and 16 (Little Miami and Lima Senior) and No. 11 Harrison are underdogs this week, Stebbins, Sidney and Xenia might move up as a group.

Division III: Hamilton Badin (8-0) will be the top seed. Bellbrook (7-2) is third but has a good chance to surpass No. 2 St. Mary’s Memorial with a win over Division IV Valley View (5-4).

Tippecanoe (7-2) is sixth, but with so much likely to happen in front and behind them the Red Devils could easily finish in another spot. They need to beat Greenville (2-7) for a chance hold onto sixth place, but if Hamilton Ross beats No. 10 Cincinnati Mt. Healthy (6-3) the Red Devils will drop to seventh and possibly eighth if Hughes wins. However, if No. 5 Wapakoneta or No. 4 Monroe, which plays unbeaten Eaton, loses, there could be room to move up.

The rivalry between No. 12 Chaminade-Julienne (3-4) and No. 17 Alter (4-5) will be meaningful as always. Alter must win to have a chance. CJ is in with a win, but a loss could knock them out.

That leaves No. 13 Dunbar (3-3), No. 14 Trotwood-Madison (3-5) and No. 15 Butler (3-5) fighting for some of the final spots. Dunbar and Troy make it with wins. Trotwood needs a little help. The longshot is No. 22 Ponitz Tech (3-6). A win over Division V Meadowdale (5-3) and lots of teams losing is what it will take.

Division IV: Eaton (9-0) could beat Monroe to finish unbeaten and still drop from second if No. 3 Cincinnati McNicholas (8-0) beats Badin and gets some other help.

No. 5 Clinton-Massie (7-1) should maintain a top-eight seed. No. 7 Milton-Union (8-1) will at least hold its spot with a win at Division VII Riverside (7-2). No. 10 Valley View will slip if it loses to Bellbrook but is still likely to make it. No. 12 Northridge (6-3) controls its destiny and is a heavy favorite at Division VII Sidney Lehman (1-8). No. 15 Oakwood (3-6) and No. 16 Waynesville (5-4) don’t control their destinies but at least one should make it regardless of outcomes.

Division V: A win over Dixie (2-7) secures No. 2 Preble Shawnee (9-0) anywhere from second to fifth depending on what happens with No. 3 Roger Bacon, No. 5 Reading and No. 6 Springfield Shawnee.

No. 7 Brookville (7-2) is solidly in and could slide up a spot or down a couple spots. No. 16 Carlisle (4-5) and No. 17 Meadowdale don’t control their destinies, but victories will likely be enough.

Division VI: No. 3 Arcanum (7-2) and No. 4 Coldwater (7-2) are heavy favorites this week and will either stay 3-4 or swap positions.

No. 9 Anna (4-5) faces unbeaten Marion Local, but it takes a lot of things to go against them to not make it if they lose. The same goes for No. 11 Greeneview (5-4). No. 13 Fort Recovery and No. 14 National Trail need to pull upsets to ensure themselves a spot.

Division VII: Marion Local (9-0) has clinched the top seed. No. 2 Tri-Village (8-1) and No. 3 Riverside (7-2) are battling for the second spot. No. 6 St. Henry (6-3) and No. 9 Ansonia are favored this week, and both have a chance to finish in the top eight.

To qualify, No. 13 Troy Christian (5-4) needs to beat Bethel (1-8) and get some help that they are likely to get.

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