Dragons making impact on basepaths

Dayton benefitting from new pickoff rule in High-A that promotes more stolen bases
Dayton's Jonathan Willems attempts to steal second base in a game last week against Lansing. An experimental rule in High-A leagues eliminating certain pickoff moves is meant to increase base stealing. Jeff Gilbert/CONTRIBUTED

Dayton's Jonathan Willems attempts to steal second base in a game last week against Lansing. An experimental rule in High-A leagues eliminating certain pickoff moves is meant to increase base stealing. Jeff Gilbert/CONTRIBUTED

When Quin Cotton walked to lead off the sixth inning with his Dayton Dragons leading 3-2, his first thought was to steal second base. Not a revolutionary thought but a rare thought in today’s baseball.

Cotton knows that percentages define the new conventional wisdom to stay put and wait for a hit or a walk to move into scoring position or, even better, a home run. In general, base stealers need a 70% success rate for a net gain. But only a little over 400 players in major-league history have been that efficient. So the risk-reward formula is seen as too risky to steal lots of bases like the old days.

Cotton’s thought, however, was that it was riskier to stay put and possibly be part of a double play.

So he stole second base.

What? That’s so 1980s and 1990s when being a 40-40 player was the thing. Who does Cotton think he is? Rickey Henderson?

But that’s how Cotton was feeling on the second Thursday night of the season, so he stole third base, too. The catcher threw the baseball into left field and Cotton scored the final run in the Dragons’ 4-2 victory over Lansing.

The fans stood and cheered, and that’s the point. Cotton was emboldened to steal because Major League Baseball is experimenting with a new pickoff rule for pitchers in its High-A minor leagues this summer to see if it will increase the running game, bring some old-school excitement back and please its fans.

“That was one of the most exciting plays of the game,” Cotton said. “I was happy to impact the game. I went 0-for at the plate but still brought us a run. I’d say it is very interesting and very exciting for the fans.”

How often does a sequence like Cotton’s manufactured run happen in the major leagues? It is a rare situation, indeed, and longtime baseball fans have noticed. Baseball may be the perfect slow-paced sport for the summer, but stolen bases are way down.

Dayton's Quin Cotton leads the Dragons with five stolen bases. The team is on pace to equal the club record for a season. An experimental rule in High-A leagues eliminating certain pickoff moves is meant to increase base stealing. Jeff Gilbert/CONTRIBUTED

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From 1976 to 2001, over 3,000 bases were stolen every season except for the strike-shortened seasons of 1981 and 1994 and three others that came close. The decline in stolen bases reached a modern low in 2019 of 2,280 or 76 per team.

Home runs have more than doubled since 1980, which most fans don’t mind. But strikeouts and walks are up, too. With fewer balls in play and less base stealing, baseball has been criticized for being too stationary.

“Major League Baseball is trying to be more dynamic,” Dragons manager Jose Moreno said. “If we see that we have some benefits, maybe they’ll want to continue that in the future.”

The experimental rule stipulates that a pitcher must disengage his foot from the rubber before making any other movement involved with a pickoff move. Otherwise, the pickoff attempt is a balk.

For left-handers, this means they can’t use the step-over move or the quick snap throw. For right-handers, then can’t use the quick spin move. The foot must go behind the rubber first.

“It’s taken a little bit of an advantage from them and given it to us as base stealers,” said Cotton, who leads the Dragons with five steals. “We’re a lot more confident and have been a lot more aggressive.”

Every Dragon has the green light because Moreno loves the running game with or without the rule change. The Dragons are fourth in the league with 21 steals in 12 games, putting them on a pace for 229 in 120 games. The club record is 228 in 140 games in 2011 when Billy Hamilton stole 103.

Moreno and Dragons development coach Darren Bragg are teaching the players to do more than read the pitchers’ moves. They instruct them to take bigger leads, look for breaking ball counts and to consider the speed of a pitcher’s release and the catcher’s abilities.

“There’s a little bit of a learning curve these first couple weeks, and guys are going to figure out what they can actually get away with,” Bragg said. “But because of the new rule change we should be a lot more aggressive on the bases, and I think we’ll get better as the season goes on.”

Cotton was caught trying to steal second in last Tuesday’s series opener against Lansing. He ran on a fastball count and the pitcher was quick to the plate. Moreno pulled Cotton aside to ask him what he saw. Cotton said he wanted to stay out of a potential double play.

“That was a bad time to run on my end,” Cotton said. “He said we want you to be aggressive, but we also want you to learn when is a good time to run and be more successful through that instead of just taking off whenever I feel like it. I definitely feel like I’ve already started to learn that.”

Cotton was eight for 16 in stolen base attempts in 61 games in rookie league in 2019. His college totals were 13 and eight in a similar number of games. He wants to steal 50 this year with at least an 80 percent success rate and lead the team.

“It’s not about a number or picking up stats for no reason,” he said. “It’s about being able to get myself into scoring position for my teammates.”

TUESDAY’S GAME

Dayton at South Bend, 7:05 p.m., 980

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