Hard to tell and hard to say. If we knew who is going to go and who is going to stay after the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the picture might look more like a realist Rembrandt painting than a cubism rendering by Picasso.
Nothing said 2022 Cincinnati Reds like the day Hunter Greene and Art Warren combined for a nine-inning no-hitter against the Pirates, yet the Reds lost, 1-0.
Regardless, it is almost a certainty (almost) that the Reds won’t start the second half 3-22, as they did to open the season.
And it is almost certain that Phil Castellini won’t stick his winged-tip shoe into his mouth as he did on Opening Day.
Asked on WLW radio about the team dumping players, Castellini said, in effect, that fans should swallow what the team is force feeding them and said, “Where ya gonna go?”
Well, they aren’t going to games. Row after row after row of empty seats dominate Great American Ball Park for home games. The team’s home attendance is an announced 18,000 per game, 23rd among MLB teams. Several times attendance at GABP has been below 10,000.
And it isn’t likely to get any better after the trade deadline as the team continues its march toward 100 losses, or a new club record of 102 losses, plus more dumped salaries.
The Reds seemingly are in the mode of stockpiling prospects, which translates on the baseball field to suspects. Prospects are like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.
After the trade deadline, it is odds-on that Cincinnati’s best pitcher, all star Luis Castillo, will be wearing another team’s uniform. His name has been at the top of the trade rumor list for months.
The New York Yankees want him, the Los Angeles Dodgers want him, the Boston Red Sox want him. Reds general manager Nick Krall should be able to sit at his desk and sift through piles of offers, hunting for the best haul of prospects he can get.
Castillo, though, probably won’t be the only one packing his gear. Fellow starter Tyler Mahle also is coveted by contending teams searching for pitching help.
Position players could go, too. Brandon Drury, Tommy Pham, Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel and Kyle Farmer are players that could help contending teams.
Krall should have a short list, a list that fits on a post-it, of players not to trade. That would be the three rookie pitchers — Greene (despite his 11 losses), Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft, plus catcher Tyler Stephenson and second baseman Jonathan India.
At a soon-to-be-39 years old with dwindling numbers and a $25 million contract that runs through next season, Joey Votto is not tradeable.
There isn’t a member of the Reds’ bullpen that other teams desire, a bullpen with a 5.42 earned run average, worst by lengths and strides in MLB. Second worst is Pittsburgh at 4.78.
Don’t look for the Reds to do anything to upgrade that leaky ‘pen. The rest of this season is not about winning. It is about seeing what players they have can do and can’t do and developing young players and giving them major-league experience. Wins and losses are afterthoughts.
The Reds begin the second half at 34-57, last place in the National League Central Division, a half-game behind the Chicago Cubs for fourth.
Amazingly, those two in deep argument for last place will get to emerge from the cornstalks near Dyersville, Iowa, on Aug. 11 in MLB’s second Field of Dreams game.
The Reds begin the second half Friday night in Great American Ball Park against the St. Louis Cardinals. Home? For the Reds, home is not where the wins are. They are 18-28 at home, about the same as they are on the road (16-29).
On the fun side, though, if the Reds did think about winning, they should try to get into one-run games. They’ve won 13 one-run games. Forget about the 11 losses.
And they’ve had success in extra-inning games, 5-2. Perhaps that’s because they get to start extra innings with a runner on second base and don’t have to somehow get him there on their own accord.
In a nutshell, or on a post-it, don’t look for the second half to be any better than the first half down on the banks of the Ohio River.
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