‘Full employment’ by 2016, economist says

The U.S. economy will continue to expand in 2015, but the Dayton region will lag behind — in part because of its dependence on federal spending, a PNC Bank senior economist said Wednesday.

The nation saw economic growth of better than 3 percent at an annual rate in four of the last five quarters, said Gus Faucher, a PNC senior economist and vice president. That is above what the U.S. economy can grow at over the longer term, which means that the nation is making “considerable progress” in reducing labor market slack from recessionary job losses, he said.

“So far this year we’ve added almost 230,000 jobs per month nationally. We only need to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep up to with growth in the labor force, so that means we are re-absorbing those workers who were unemployed or underemployed during the Great Recession,” Faucher said.

Faucher was one of three speakers at PNC’s Economic Forecast Luncheon, an annual event that attracted more than 240 local business leaders to the Mandalay Banquet Center in Moraine.

Richard Stock, director of the University of Dayton’s Business Research Group, discussed the region’s economic outlook. Thomas Lasley, executive director of Learn to Earn Dayton, addressed efforts to increase the area’s “intellectual capital” to boost economic vitality.

Faucher said the U.S. should continue to add jobs at a rate of 200,000 per month through 2015. “By the time we get into 2016, we’ll be pretty close to what we call full employment,” he said.

Dayton’s economic recovery has been slower than that of the nation.

“I think a big reason for that is Dayton is heavily dependent on federal spending. We’ve had an emphasis on reducing federal spending, so that has been a drag on the Dayton-area economy,” Faucher said.

In addition, the region has an aging population and slow population growth. “That makes it difficult to attract the kind of dynamic businesses that are going to be adding to job growth over the longer run,” he said.

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