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Martin Gottlieb, who wrote for the Dayton Daily News editorial page for 27 years until retiring in 2011, became fascinated with Lichtman’s system in 1986.
“Lichtman applied his system to predict the outcome of the 1986 senatorial races,” Gottlieb explains. “I was fascinated by his success and had never observed anyone so successfully predict a political race. I think the difference for Lichtman is that most people see prediction as a game, relying on polls and analyzing the ground game of elections. Lichtman, however, uses prediction as a measure of insight into what is actually happening in our culture and political climate.”
Gottlieb covered many political topics for the Dayton Daily News, with his columns on national affairs appearing in newspapers across the country. He began covering Lichtman as well.
Now, Gottlieb offers his own analysis of Lichtman’s “keys” and why they work in his book “Campaigns Don’t Count: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong.” Martin first published his book in 2006. He released a new version, updated to include chapters on the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections, spring of 2017.
Whenever he spoke with Lichtman, Gottlieb says, “I found him to be responsive, interesting, intense and articulate. But I don’t write about him too much as a person. I don’t want to make him seem godlike in his prediction success. The system is what fascinates me. Anyone can operate it.”
Though Gottlieb says his target audience is other journalists and those who are “political junkies,” he believes his book is important for general readers as well, because, Gottlieb says, “we’re all overly-inundated with media interpretations of American politics, and a focus on campaigns and the money that drives them. Lichtman’s keys cut through all of that to give a perspective on how voters feel about how the country and its leadership are doing.”
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Upcoming Literary Events
Thursday, July 27, 7 p.m., Dayton Barnes & Noble, 2619 Miamisburg-Centerville Road — Candace Ganger will introduce her debut Young Adult novel, published by St. Martin's Press, "The Inevitable Collision of Birdie & Bash." Learn more about Candace and her novel at www.candaceganger.com.
Wednesday, Aug. 2, 6:30-8:30 p.m. — Word's Worth Writing Center will offer a "First Wednesday Writing Workout" led by local author and writing instructor Katrina Kittle. The "workout" include writing prompts and mini-craft sessions. It will be held at the Oakwood Starbucks, 2424 Far Hills Ave., in Oakwood. Visit www.wordsworthdayton.com for more information or to register.
Now through Aug. 15, application open to attend Fall Retreat of Antioch Writers' Workshop at University of Dayton —The workshop's fall retreat will be Sept. 29-Oct. 1 at the Bergamo Center in Beavercreek. Retreat leaders are award-winning novelist Meredith Doench and Pulitzer Prize Finalist novelist and memoirist Lee Martin. Learn more and apply to attend at www.antiochwritersworkshop.com.