Preliminary data from 2023 showed the spring severe weather season got off to a quick start, with 206 tornadoes in March, 147 in April and 172 in May.
This year, forecasters expect a milder start to spring, with 40 to 95 tornadoes expected in March. AccuWeather predicted the following months will see a jump in tornadic activity, with 165 to 200 tornadoes in April and 250 to 375 in May.
While most severe storms are expected to hit Tornado Alley, which is from Texas through Nebraska, AccuWeather warned other states, including Ohio, to be aware.
“The second half of spring is jumping out to us,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-rage forecaster. “The severe weather threat can be more frequent in the Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio valleys in later March into May, while the northern Plains and Northeast can have an increase in May.”
Conditions in the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico and the return of El Niño could affect this year’s tornado season.
“Quick warming of the Great Lakes, combined with below average snowpack in the Midwest, could lead to an early start to severe weather season in this region,” said Pastelok.
El Niño is leading weather patterns in North America, which can lead to below-average tornado and hail in the Plains. However, El Niño is expected to weaken this spring and could result in an increase in severe weather in Tornado Alley, according to AccuWeather.
If water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are slow to warm in March, it could decrease severe weather this month, Pastelok added.
Regardless of location or time of year, AccuWeather warned that severe weather can happen at any time.
“Any strong system can produce a couple of tornadoes, mainly EF-0 intensity, but an EF-1 or EF-2 cannot be ruled out,” said Pastelok.
The Miami Valley already has seen tornadic activity this year. On Feb. 28, two tornadoes hit Clark and Montgomery counties.
An EF-1 tornado with maximum winds speeds of 100 mph touched down in Riverside at 4:37 a.m. before ending at 4:41 a.m. just south of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Greene County, according to the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
The second tornado was an EF-2 with maximum wind speeds of 130 mph that touched down at 4:52 a.m. in Springfield Twp. The tornado started at Selma Pike and moved northeast along Ridge Road near state Route 41 until it lifted at 5:15 a.m. more than 20 miles later near London in Madison County, the NWS storm survey reported.
No injuries or fatalities were reported with either tornado.
About the Author