“This tells us that there are not enough jobs currently available for unemployed workers to secure,” said Heather Smith, work and wages researcher with liberal leaning Policy Matters Ohio.
In July, the Dayton metro area’s unemployment rate increased to 5.6%, which was up from 5.2% in June, says preliminary, not seasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that is subject to revision. The metro area includes Montgomery, Miami and Greene counties.
This was the highest unemployment rate since June 2021.
The Dayton region’s unemployment rate last year never got above 4.8% and was as low as 3.9%. The local jobless rate increased significantly at the beginning of this year and had ranged from 4.9% to 5.4%, prior to July.
The unemployment rate reflects the number of people who do not have a job but who are actively looking for work, as a percentage of the total labor force. The unemployment rate does not count people who do not have a job but who are not searching for work.
Ohio’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.5% in July, which the highest level since July 2021, according to not seasonally adjusted data.
The local jobless rate was higher than Cincinnati (5.2%), Cleveland (5.2%), Columbus (5%) and Canton (5.4%). Dayton’s rate was the same as Akron and lower than Springfield (5.9%), Toledo (6.8%) and Youngstown (6.3%).
Rea Hederman Jr., vice president of policy at the conservative leaning Buckeye Institute, said Ohio’s rising unemployment rate and declining labor force participation rate are a concerning sign that Ohioans who are looking for jobs are not finding employment. He said the national job market is performing better than Ohio’s.
Hederman said policymakers need to continue to adopt policies and reforms that spur economic growth and make sure the state can withstand an economic downturn.
Smith, with Policy Matters Ohio, said uncertainty may be partly to blame for rising unemployment. She said impending and enacted tariffs could be influencing businesses’ decision making, and employers may be more hesitant to take financial risks when “input costs” are in flux.
A short-term increase in unemployment could be considered a positive, if paired with enough jobs to fill, Smith said. However, she said, a high sustained unemployment rate can signal an oncoming economic downturn, since it means that people are not being connected to jobs or are being laid off.
“The unemployment rate can only give us a part of the picture,” Smith said. “If we have a high unemployment rate alongside an increasing labor force participation rate, that could suggest more folks are entering the work force, but haven’t found a job yet. However, high unemployment paired with a decreasing labor force participation rate could suggest people are not finding jobs, becoming discouraged and leaving the work force.”
By the numbers
Ohio unemployment rate: 5.5%
Dayton metro area unemployment rate: 5.6%
Ohio’s unemployed persons per job opening ratio: 1.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics not seasonally adjusted data
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