Local birth rates mirror state and national trends

The number of births at six Dayton area hospitals from 2008-12:

Sources: Premier Health, Kettering Health Network

Unmatched coverage: For this story, we analyzed county data provided by the Ohio Department of Health to determine if the statewide and national trend matches up with what we're seeing here in the Dayton region.

The bad economy is hitting every aspect of American life, including apparently life itself.

Birth rate patterns in the four-county region closely mirror the state and national trend of a falling number of new babies each year, according to a Dayton Daily News analysis.

Local health experts said a decrease in the counties’ population numbers and the economic recession are the two main factors why the birth rate has been declining.

The birth rate among all women in the United States began to decline in 2007, and hit its lowest ever recorded in 2011, according to the Pew Research Center. That rate remained mostly unchanged in 2012 with about 3.9 million births, according to preliminary data from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Since 2007 when the birth rate per 1,000 population in Montgomery County was 13.5, the number slowly declined each year to 12.4 in 2011, then slightly increased to 12.7 last year, according to data from the Ohio Department of Health.

In Greene County, the birth rate was 11.9 in 2007, plunged to 10.6 in 2010, then crept back up to 11.1 and 11.2 the last two years. The birth rate has dropped every year in Miami and Warren counties since 2008 and 2007, respectively.

Sara Paton, an epidemiologist with the Public Health – Dayton & Montgomery County, said combining an older, declining population with a loss of economic development and jobs in Montgomery County has led to the declining birth rate.

On average, it costs about $3,000 to $4,000 for a natural delivery and hospital stay, and $10,000 to $12,000 for a Cesarean section, Paton said. About a third of births are C-section, she said.

“When the economic situation isn’t favorable, you’re going to see less babies being born,” Paton said.

La Fleur Small, an associate professor of sociology and geriatrics at Wright State University, said the financial impact of having a baby is just one component of a declining overall birth rate.

Women are waiting until their mid-30s or later to start having children, giving them more time to advance their education or professional career and less time to have multiple children, Small said. Gender equity also has opened the door for parity in the workforce between men and women, she said.

Small believes birth rates will continue to decline, but life expectancy will increase because of improved healthcare and medical innovation.

“… There will be less children because of the affordability of it,” Small said. “But even though women are having less children, the population is doing really well because people who are born are not dying.”

Local hospitals in general have felt the impact of lower birth rates since 2008.

Miriam Cartmell, administrative director of Women’s and Children’s Services at Kettering Medical Center, said women will either deliver at the hospital where their doctor goes, or seek recommendations from family members or friends.

“The caring and compassionate attitude of the staff and providers makes a big difference to patients,” Cartmell said.

Lebanon resident Shelly Thornburg gave birth to her first child, Lillian, on Dec. 11 at Miami Valley Hospital. Thornburg and her husband, Jason, have been married for a year and a half, and she said she did not plan to wait until she was 37 years old before having children. Jason, 41, has two other children, ages 18 and 16.

“It’s how it ended up happening,” Shelly said. “It was all in timing. I never had it planned I’d be this old, but I don’t feel like I’m that old.”

What they did prepare for was the birth of Lillian, including being financially ready, and they plan to have at least one more child.

Shelly is a kindergarten teacher for Dayton Public Schools, while Jason is a contractor for Procter & Gamble. She has eight weeks of maternity leave, and his family lives in the area and will help with the childcare.

“We’re totally settled,” Shelly said. “We have our house. We have our careers. We’ve traveled together. We feel like we’ve done a lot. I don’t regret waiting.”

Paton said she’s not concerned yet about the birth rates because they’ve shown signs the last couple of years of leveling off. But she said a boost in economic development in Montgomery County will help attract younger people who have not yet had children but are planning to.

“It’s hard to say what will happen in the next few years,” Paton said. “If it continues to fall, it will be concerning.”