Dayton Mayor @nanwhaley on @CNBC today: Opiates are a 'natural disaster' https://t.co/4FP5eNCkYn pic.twitter.com/7n1dkn4Owg
— Ohio Politics (@Ohio_Politics) August 2, 2017
In theory, short of nominating Daffy Duck, a Democrat is more likely than not to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. John R. Kasich. Reason: Ohioans don’t usually elect consecutive governors from the same party. It’s only happened twice in 100 years – Democrats George White and Martin Davey in 1934, Republicans George Voinovich and Bob Taft in 1998.
But once a Democrat gets elected governor, keeping the job becomes a challenge. Since 1954, when Cleveland Democrat Frank Lausche won his fifth (two-year) gubernatorial term, Ohio’s only two-term Democratic governor has been Lakewood Democrat Richard F. Celeste (1983-91). Other Democrats: Michael V. DiSalle, one term (1959-63), defeated for reelection; John J. Gilligan, one term, (1971-75), defeated for re-election; most recently, Ted Strickland, one term, (2007-11), defeated for re-election.
Each of those one-termers won a first term because of a GOP fiasco (1958’s Right to Work for Less ballot issue; 1970’s Crofters loan scandal) or because of a politically weak GOP nominee (then-Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, in 2006).
Governor candidate @JimRenacci gives $4M of his own money to his campaign. #OHGov pic.twitter.com/BWiNPpEJbx
— Ohio Politics (@Ohio_Politics) July 31, 2017
There are a couple reasons Democrats have had a tough time holding the governorship since Lausche. First, Ohio leans Republican. (Coincidentally, Lausche was, for all practical purposes, a Republican.) Then, too, Ohio tends to elect a Democrat governor when Statehouse Republicans get complacent or sloppy, which is an occupational hazard of being a state’s dominant party – thus DiSalle in 1958 and Gilligan in 1970. But they too faced an occupational hazard: Circumstances required them to be boat-rockers in a Statehouse that prefers smooth sailing. As for Strickland’s administration, it appeared risk-averse in dealing with the legislature – a mistake.
Gilligan (with help from some Republican legislators) created Ohio’s income tax, one reason voters unseated him in 1974. They re-installed Columbus Republican James A. Rhodes as governor. Did Rhodes repeal the income tax? To ask the question answers it. That’s the Ohio Way: Democratic governors renovate a beat-up banquet hall, Republicans get to host all its wingdings.
So whoever 2017’s Democratic nominee for governor, she or he better have a concrete program and, if elected, go for it, with no ifs, ands or buts. Three prospective 2017 Republican nominees for governor – Attorney General Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Jon Husted, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor – have held statewide offices and they, like a fourth GOP contender for governor, U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, of Wadsworth, have been in GOP legislative majorities. They know the game.
Ohio Secretary of State @JonHusted won't give Trump voting panel additional info on Ohio voters. https://t.co/C2lhT7q61l pic.twitter.com/XJp0ZSwksj
— Ohio Politics (@Ohio_Politics) July 24, 2017
Someone who seeks power has to know how she or he will use it. Call it vision, call it a checklist. But history suggests that Democratic governors only have a limited time to foster change at the Statehouse. The GOP’s likely continued dominance of the General Assembly gives Republican governors a cushion (even allowing for periodic jousting with GOP Gov. John R. Kasich). Not so for a Democrat. Constitutionally and politically, Ohio’s governorship is powerful. Slogans and generalities are for campaigns. But as a way to manage a state falling short in some economic and social benchmarks, that’s the sure-fire recipe for a one-term governorship.
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