Gas prices rise after long decline; refinery fire to blame

By late-afternoon Tuesday, Gas Buddy’s daytongasprices.com website showed the average gas price in Dayton had risen almost 10 cents in one day, from $3.42 to $3.52. As always, there was a broad range, with more than a dozen local stations down in the $3.22 to $3.29 range, and a similar number at $3.69 on the high end.

Statewide data from AAA, which does not change during the day, listed the average Ohio gas price at $3.58 Tuesday, down 5 cents from a week ago, but up 3 cents compared to Monday.

In that AAA data, Dayton, Springfield and Cincinnati on Tuesday were down 9 cents, 6 cents and 10 cents, respectively, compared to a week ago at this time. But in more short-term data, Dayton and Springfield were up 4 and 8 cents respectively Tuesday, compared to the day before.

Meanwhile, prices nationwide remained in decline for 11 consecutive weeks, the longest decline in average gas prices since the pandemic started in 2020. Nationwide, the average gas price has fallen to $3.84, declining 5 cents from a week ago and $1.22 lower than the peak in mid-June.

Of course, that comes on the heels of a huge price spike earlier this year that pushed prices over $5 per gallon.

“I think that we will see prices cycle before Labor Day,” De Haan said Monday afternoon, referring to a pattern where stations ignore minor fluctuations in the market on a daily basis, with most stations undercutting each other by a penny or two each day until they run out of margin. “I think we could see something by any point, maybe by mid-week, prices could maybe cycle back up to maybe $3.79, maybe $3.69 like they did a couple of a weeks ago.”

Still, De Haan said the price hike likely won’t be that bad.

“Once the refinery gets back online, we will see more price decreases again,” he said. “But for now, we may see a little bit of a blip here ahead of the holiday weekend. It has nothing to do with the holiday, everything to do with the BP fire that happened last Wednesday.”

Many motorists are expected to hit the road for the Labor Day holiday weekend regardless of gas prices, according to AAA, which predicts travel volume to return to near pre-pandemic levels, just like it did for the Memorial Day and Independence Day holiday weekends.

While travel is expected to make roadways more busy, AAA does not have predictions for how crowded it might get, according to AAA Club Alliance spokeswoman Kara Hitchens.

“We figure based on what happened with Memorial Day and what happened with Fourth of July and now knowing that gas prices have started to creep back down, we’re expecting to be at near pre-pandemic (levels), if it doesn’t break that record,” Hitchens told this news outlet Tuesday.

Friday afternoon is expected to be peak travel time, she said.

“We figure it will be the usual mix,” she said. “Folks who are getting off work, the commuters, as well as people who are trying to head out of town.”

Traffic also is expected to be heavy late Monday afternoon as road trippers return to get ready for work and school on Tuesday, Hitchens said.

Road trip weekends also are an opportune time to emphasize planning and safety, she said.

“One of the things that we have found, at least here in Ohio, because school’s back in session, people don’t tend to travel quite as far,” Hitchens said. “But people still need to remember that having your car in good condition is still going to be very important. You don’t want your 3-day weekend to end up (with you) sitting on the side at the road for several hours. Get your car checked out by a trusted mechanic always before you hit the road.

Those taking a flight anywhere are encouraged to book the first flight of the day, as that flight is less likely to get canceled, she said.

De Haan said prices nationwide likely will continue to be moderate and, by mid to late October, lower than what they are today.

“The next couple of weeks we’re more subject to hurricane season and the tropics are getting a little more active, but it wouldn’t surprise me by November that we could see … some of the cheapest stations in Ohio falling below the $3-a-gallon mark if everything goes our way,” he said.