GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said U.S.-Iran attacks mainly are affecting prices due to disrupting supply of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for oil tankers entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. He said that 20% of the world’s oil moves through the strait on the way to global markets.
De Haan said oil tankers have been dropping anchor before going through the strait out of concern they could be attacked, so developments around the conflict with Iran will likely significantly affect gas prices. However, he did say there was not necessarily going to be a spike in fuel prices, as the U.S. and oil-producing countries may move to secure the strait, improving oil prices again.
He said prices also have risen due to seasonal changes, transitioning from winter to summer gasoline formulations, which are more expensive to produce.
He said some states, including Ohio, participate in price cycling, which is a pattern of large increases in prices followed by large decreases.
“It’s the typical cycle timing, but the cycle amount is enhanced by what’s happening overseas,” De Haan said. The good news, he added, is that prices will start to trickle lower as the days go by, though the rate it drops could be slower than usual due to ongoing uncertainty.
Diesel fuel prices, however, will probably see double the impact compared to regular gasoline, De Haan said, partly because of a drone attack on an Saudi Arabian oil refinery and partly because inventories have been relatively tight due to recent cold weather boosting heating oil consumption.
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