Deloitte estimated 2020 U.S. holiday retail sales between November and January will be $1.147 billion and $1.152 billion, an 1% to 1.5% increase from last year. On the flip side, Deloitte expects holiday e-commerce sales to surge by 25% to 35%, amounting to between $182 billion and $196 billion. That’s compared a 14.7% increase in 2019, with sales reaching $145 billion.
The Dayton Mall is working to bring back more foot traffic during the Coronavirus pandemic. MARSHALL GORBY\STAFF
“I think there’s just so many variables in place with the economy. That’s a month and a half out unemployment could spike again, whether or not people get stimulus checks could impact people’s willingness and ability to shop for Christmas,” said University of Dayton marketing professor Riley Dugan.
Prior to the virus, online shopping has been the biggest threat to in-store sales and coupled with the risk of the virus, it now poses an even bigger threat. Each year shoppers have spent less and less during Black Friday and opted for deals on Cyber Monday just three days later.
“I can see the long-term trends, trending away from Black Friday shopping because I just think that the long-term trends in retail are declining. You see closures of anchor stores and malls and that’s reflective I think in the fact that people are shopping online more, so Black Friday, in person retail shopping as an extension I think would be decreasing,” Dugan said.
Local sales important
It’s just the opposite for Maribella Boutique owner Barbi Dewitt. “Our strongest business has never been online. Our strongest business has always been in person and part of that is we deliver a shopping experience in store that people still want," she said.
Safety during the holiday shopping season is priority for the Fairborn boutique’s customers. “One of the biggest things we wanted to do was make sure that our clientele was just able to safely social distance and people didn’t feel like they had to be packed in," Dewitt said.
Dewitt said her Fairborn boutique will start deals early for the first time. “Last year we noticed a lot of people did sales before Thanksgiving so we’re just following the trend since we had a lot of pre-Thanksgiving shoppers last year,” she said. Black Friday prices in her store will start Nov. 24 and continue through the weekend.
Gough said retailers have to meet customers where they are even if that means moving to online and curbside shopping and offering sales sooner.
“I think everybody is pivoting. In the retail business, usually success for retail is knowing where the customer is. If we as consumers want to shop earlier then that retailer has to follow their customers,” he said.
Large retailers start early
Some big box retailers started their online sales this week to give customers a chance to get holiday presents early. On Sunday evening, Walmart rolled back its prices and begin its Big Save Event through Thursday. The five-day sales event includes discounts on electronics, toys, and home essentials that mimic Black Friday pricing.
Target announced they too will offer sales early this year. In addition to its Day of Deals Tuesday and today, the big-box store will also offer Black Friday pricing on items throughout the entire month of November and extend its price match guarantee policy From Nov. 1 to Dec. 24. The policy gives customers a price adjustment on any item advertised as a “Black Friday deal” either instore or online.
Amazon’s Prime Day continues today where only Prime members can access items for reduced prices. Some items include electronics at 33% off, home security camera systems, and up to 20% off furniture.
Holiday sales by the numbers
1% to 1.5%: Expected 2020 retail store sales increase
4.1%: 2019 retail store sales increase
25% to 35%: Expected 2020 online sales increase
14.7%: Online sales increase in 2019