But the race is too close to call since there are about 970 outstanding provisional ballots and 481 outstanding absentee and military ballots, said Jan Kelly, director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections.
This was the closest Dayton commission race since at least the 1990s, possibly longer. The Board of Elections is expected to certify the final election results at its Nov. 20 meeting.
The outstanding ballots could tip the race in favor of Fairchild, or they could narrow the gap between the candidates, possibly triggering an automatic recount.
Shaw said he’s glad to be leading but wishes he had a more comfortable cushion.
“I’ve got no fingernails left,” he said.
Fairchild said hopefully he can overtake Shaw’s thin lead but says he has no idea what to expect when all the votes are tallied.
“It’s clear there’s a possibility that when we count every vote, I could be the winner,” he said. “We’ll have to wait and see.”
Four people ran for two Dayton City Commission seats, and incumbent Matt Joseph sailed to a fourth term in office while independent Scott Sliver finished in last place.
But it was a battle for Dean Lovelace’s seat, who is retiring after 22 years in office. Shaw had 9,622 votes to Fairchild’s 9,453, according to the unofficial election results.
The Montgomery County Board of Elections soon will check the provisional ballots to find out which are legitimate and should be counted, said John Doll, board chairman.
Provisional ballots are used when there are concerns about a voter’s eligibility.
The board also will count late-arriving absentee ballots and military ballots. The board may have to review some ballots to determine voter intent.
Doll said the board will tally the legitimate outstanding ballots and will order a recount if the gap between Shaw and Fairchild meets the statutory requirement.
According to a directive from the Ohio Secretary of State, automatic recounts should occur when the gap between the candidates for a disputed seat is less than or equal to 0.5 percent of the total votes cast for the position.
About 25,827 votes were cast for Shaw, Fairchild and Sliver, which the state considers the vote total.
Right now, the 169 vote difference is outside of the 0.5 percent standard. But that could change with the tallying of the outstanding votes.
Fairchild or Shaw could request a recount if the separation is greater than 0.5 percent of the total vote. But in that case, the candidate would have to pay for the recount.
“Any candidate can request a recount, but they’ll have to pay per precinct,” said Kelly.
Mark Owens, chairman of the Montgomery County Democratic Party, said the provisional and absentee ballots tend to split the same as the other voting results.
“Chris is in a pretty good position,” he said. “He’s favored.”
Shaw, along with Joseph, were generally considered the favorites going into Tuesday’s election.
He and Joseph were endorsed by the county Democratic Party and placed first and second in the May primary. Shaw is the owner of a 105-year-old family business in West Dayton.
In recent history, the commission races have tend to be lopsided, often with the incumbents winning easily.
Shaw said he has no frame of reference for this situation, and there’s nothing he can do but wait for the final ballots to be counted.
“I’ve got to sit and sweat it out,” he said.
Fairchild, a pastor and community activist, said people underestimated him after he placed fourth in the primary.
But, he said, he connected with voters on the campaign trail because of his plans to redevelop Dayton’s struggling neighborhoods and increase opportunities for young people.
Fairchild said it’s too soon to say whether he would pay for a recount. But he said the race results show his campaign was effective.
“We had a much better campaign, but we just couldn’t get over that endorsement,” he said.
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