Don’t look now though, but there is a lot of cold brewing for the Ohio Valley in the coming days. Of course, you’d typically think of January being one of the coldest months of the year and this one is looking to be no exception. In fact, temperatures are likely going to plunge well below normal for much of the country by the end of this week.
The weather pattern we are seeing develop will feature a ridge of high pressure up through the Gulf of Alaska. This will force the jet stream, or river of fast moving air high up in the atmosphere, up and over the ridge, crossing eastern Siberia, deep into the polar regions of the northern hemisphere. This jet stream will then dig deep into the United States, plunging bitter cold air as far south as Texas and as far east as the Ohio Valley.
This will send our temperatures tumbling to levels we haven’t seen since mid-December, and perhaps even colder depending on whether we pick up any snow-cover.
This is where the forecast gets a little more uncertain. Air mass changes are easier to forecast long-range than storm chances. The reason is because once an air mass starts to move, it can’t easily be stopped. Storm systems, however, can be easily influenced by wind changes, temperature and moisture sources.
There are many small-scale features that models must figure out when determining potential storm systems and tracks. However, there will be two potential systems to watch over the coming days. One of those could get close to us this weekend, and another one early next week.
If those were to bring us snow, then that could influence our temperatures, making it even colder. Even if the snow does miss the Miami Valley, we will still want to pay attention to how much snow is on the ground “upstream” from us. If there is a lot of snow on the ground across the Northern and Central Plains, then cold, arctic air will have less of a chance to modify, or warm, before reaching the Miami Valley.
So — despite our recent break from the bitter cold, one thing is for sure — winter is just getting started. If you were hoping we’d get another break like we got last year, don’t count on it.
Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
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