Bales said state farmers have faced an uphill battle for five years against input costs, including fuel, labor and now a spike in machinery and fertilizer since the administration’s tariff plan went into effect at the start of 2025.
It’s a familiar sentiment across the Farm Belt, as farmers have been struggling for years with weak exports, falling crop prices and rising costs. The effects of the president’s trade wars, which have squeezed demand and raised costs further, have left the sector in a state of extended uncertainty.
Coupled with flat prices on commodities including corn and soy, farmers have seen very thin to negative margins. Corn prices are at mid-1970s levels, he said.
Ohio ranks in the nation’s Top 10 states for corn and soy production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
The Farm Bridge Assistance program announced Monday is designed to carry farmers into next year when $59 billion worth of price loss coverage, agricultural risk coverage and tax benefits take effect as part of the Big Beautiful Bill, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
“The health of our industry is woven into the well-being of how our country is doing,” Bales said.
Ohio farmers have until Dec. 19 to report their planted crop acreage to the USDA for the Farm Bridge Assistance program. Payments are expected to go out in February 2026.
Of the $12 billion in assistance money, $11 billion will be paid out to row crop farmers, those who plant and harvest soy, corn and wheat. The remaining $1 billion will go toward specialty crops, such as strawberries and grapes.
Bales said following Monday’s announcement, discussions started about long-term solutions to help Ohio’s agriculture industry including regulatory reform, developing current and emerging markets, reviewing ethanol-based fuel policies, and the sale of whole milk in schools.
Some growers, who are longtime supporters of Trump, are still optimistic about a recovery beginning next year, and farmer sentiment is at the highest level since June on hopes for trade with China. But the fundamentals aren’t pointing to a turnaround anytime soon.
Federal data shows farm bankruptcies on the rise, while income from selling corn, soybeans and wheat crops has declined since 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts net farm income will increase this year, but that is largely driven by government assistance.
Stress has been particularly acute among soybean farmers after China, the world’s top importer, avoided buying U.S. supplies this year to gain leverage in trade talks. Though China has resumed purchases following recent diplomatic agreements, its commitment has yet to fully pan out.
The reality is that America’s agricultural dominance is dwindling. Trump’s first trade war resulted in China accelerating a diversion of its supply chain away from the U.S. to places like South America. U.S. farmers have lost crucial market share to competitors, particularly Brazil.
“Economics 101: trade wars, nobody wins,” said Ryan Loy, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas. “We can point at politics, but really for many reasons at the end of the day, China goes, ‘They’re cheaper, I’m gonna buy it from them.’”
The difficulty in predicting a recovery in the U.S. farm economy was underscored last month as equipment makers including Deere & Co. gave disappointing outlooks for the year ahead, as farmers continue to hold back on buying tractors, despite Trump’s urging. The president on Monday pressured the companies to drop prices for their machines, blaming them for driving up costs for farmers.
Many believe the U.S. farm economy will continue to be mired in this downturn throughout the coming year.
“This time next year, we’re going to be having much the same conversation about margins for growers, about the potential need for economic support,” said Sam Taylor, a farm inputs analyst at Rabobank. “We could be in a trough for a little bit longer than some people would want.”
Bloomberg News contributed to this story.
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