I wrote “getting set” instead of “prepared” or “ready” because that might not be true.
Let’s take a look at that and other things going on this week:
Reds ready for prime time with Cubs coming to town?
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Entering the weekend, the third-place Reds are 25-26, 5.5 games back of first-place Chicago.
Their pythagorean win-loss total, which is based on runs differential, says they should be 29-22. That continues a theme from last season when run differential had them projected to be 82-80 but they really went 77-85.
It’s not the only similarity.
They were shut out 16 times last season and had 27 comeback wins while going 15-28 (34%) in one-run games and 27-22 in games decided by five or more runs according to Baseball-Reference.com.
They were 16-14 in March/April and 9-18 in May 2024.
This season they were 16-16 in March/April and are 9-11 in May.
They have already been shut out eight times, but their winning percentage in one-run games is slightly less bad (38%) than it was last season.
That’s… progress, I guess?
Of course, we’re talking about a small sample size in the game where sample sizes matter more than any other, but it is somewhat interesting to see some of the similarities between the team this year under the management of Terry Francona and last year under David Bell.
At any rate, anyone who is following the Reds this season knows their problem is offense. They can’t score runs.
I also compared this season to last in some major offensive categories, and what I found was more similarities. To make a long story short, they are a little better but not much.
As a team, the Reds are hitting 10 points better (.241) and ranked 19th in the majors compared to 26th at the end of last season. They walk and strikeout at about the same rate, and they have shown a little more power while still being among the leaders in stolen bases, but guess what?
They haven’t hit as well in the clutch, hitting .242 with runners in scoring position so far this season after hitting .256 in 2024.
That probably explains why they are 10th in runs scored but so bad in close games and so good at getting goose-egged.
To further simplify things, some who were supposed to uplift the offense so far have not done so. While newcomer Austin Hays has a team-high .928 OPS, Matt McClain has scuffled to a .172 batting average, and his .595 OPS is the worst among regulars.
Catcher Jose Trevino’s bat has been a pleasant surprise (.835 OPS), but Tyler Stephenson is still trying to find himself after starting the season on the injured list (also a .595 OPS).
Elly De La Cruz is great, but he can’t carry the team himself.
Of course, Francona still has plenty of time to turn things around — perhaps starting tonight against Chicago.
In other news…
Westbeld sisters make WNBA debuts
Dreams came true times two for the Fairmont grads as Maddy Westbeld began her career with the Chicago Sky and older sister Kathryn found her way into the starting lineup with the Phoenix Mercury.
While Maddy just finished up her college career at Notre Dame, Kathryn spent seven seasons playing overseas.
“It really is a milestone I‘ve been trying to get to for a while,” Kathryn said. “I’m really proud of myself. Playing overseas, being away from family, and doing all those things, people don’t know what goes on overseas. You have good experiences and bad experiences. Luckily, I feel I‘ve been able to make most of them good experiences, but it is a grind. I‘m just proud of myself for being able to stick with it.”
Springboro senior staying closer to home
Bryn Martin, Springboro’s do-it-all all-state guard, announced this week she will be playing college ball at Ohio State instead of Washington.
She signed with the Huskies in November, but reopened her recruitment last week.
Could she have an immediate impact with the Buckeyes? They return star point guard Jelani Cambridge but lost leading scorer Cotie McMahon (a Centerville grad) unexpectedly to the transfer portal so there should be an opportunity.
Dayton basketball making moves for the future
Credit: David Jablonski
Credit: David Jablonski
Collin Ross, a 6-foot-10 forward in the class of 2026, announced Monday he received a scholarship offer from the Dayton Flyers while Isaiah Mack-Russell, a 6-foot-5 guard in the class of 2027, earned one two days later.
Ross is the 11th member of the 2026 class to receive an offer from UD and the third this month, following Herly Brutus, a 6-foot-7 guard/forward from Florida, and Aiden Derkack, a 6-foot-5 guard from New Jersey.
Mack-Russell is the second 2027 recruit to receive an offer from Dayton. Shawn Foster, a 6-foot-2 point guard from Lima Senior High School, received the first offer earlier this month.
That’s all for this week, but if you have thoughts on this newsletter or anything else pertaining to the local sports landscape, please feel free to reach out to me at marcus.hartman@coxinc.com.
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